One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
This is a mechanical short signal on the Nasdaq 100 (US100). It triggered when the 5-minute 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA while price was under the 200 EMA. Although the larger daily and 4-hour trends are pointing down, today's price action has been strongly bullish, up 1.8% to 26971. Daily RSI is deeply oversold at 25.4, indicating extended downside momentum on higher timeframes. The stop is placed 1.5 times the 5-minute ATR away, at 27052.9, just above the 27000 round number. Note that this strategy's tested one-year record on the Nasdaq is slightly negative (-0.04R per trade).
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
The most common scalping setup: on 5-minute bars, buy at market when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA while price is above the 200 EMA, and sell on the mirror image. London and New York hours only (07:00 to 20:00 UTC, weekdays), at most six a day per instrument. Stop 1.5 ATR (5-minute), targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes when the EMAs cross back, or after two hours.
Caveat: One year only (the price feed keeps a year of 5-minute bars): -0.03R per trade over 1,814 trades, gold -0.02R, Nasdaq 100 -0.04R. On EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Bitcoin the same rule lost 0.17 to 0.20R a trade, because a 5-minute stop is only a few spreads wide, so it is not run there; that choice was made on the same data.
The idea, explained: Forex scalping
The sell expected the 13:40 5-minute 9/21 EMA cross under the 200 EMA to extend lower toward 26890.5 and beyond. Price went only 0.085R in favour, then rallied through the 27052.9 stop within about seven minutes for -1.057R.
This is a mechanical short signal on the Nasdaq 100 (US100). It triggered when the 5-minute 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA while price was under the 200 EMA. Although the larger daily and 4-hour trends are pointing down, today's price action has been strongly bullish, up 1.8% to 26971. Daily RSI is deeply oversold at 25.4, indicating extended downside momentum on higher timeframes. The stop is placed 1.5 times the 5-minute ATR away, at 27052.9, just above the 27000 round number. Note that this strategy's tested one-year record on the Nasdaq is slightly negative (-0.04R per trade).
Filled at 13:41 UTC at 26967.1. The 13:40 bar traded 26957.7–26998.2 and closed 26982.1; the best mark after the fill was only +0.085R. The 13:45 bar opened 26981.7, held a low of 26974.1, then ran to 27070.4 and closed 27052, through the stop at 27052.9. The position was closed at 13:48 UTC on the stop, -1.057R, with a worst excursion of -1.244R. No target was reached. Nothing in the given releases or headlines printed between the fill and the stop, so the facts do not show why price turned.
The cross was real on the 13:40 bar: 9 EMA 27017.0 under 21 EMA 27018.1, close 26988 under the 200 EMA at 27034.3. By the stop, price had traded to 27070.4, above that 200 EMA and the 27000 area the stop was set beyond, so the short’s location condition no longer held. Daily and 4-hour downtrend and RSI 25.4 were not re-measured at the close.
Lesson: Skip this 5-minute EMA short when the 9/21 gap is only about one point and the entry is minutes after a payrolls beat (165k vs 65k, wages 0.4% vs 0.3%) on a session already up 1.8%.
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
{"v":2,"symbol":"US100","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"scalp_ema_5m","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"26971.7","zone_lo":"26966.3","zone_hi":"26977.1","sl":"27052.9","tp1":"26890.5","tp2":"26809.2","tp3":"26728.0","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:41:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T13:56:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T15:41:01Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"e5e4c6454ef313d3e3fc88d0825d49bcf7db0811a38d42794608260e81eb7ed6"}
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
Scalping trade: moves are quick, and the spread takes a bigger share of a small stop.
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on 6 Nov at 15:00 UTC.
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
The underlying strategy has a negative tested record, and today's strong intraday bullish momentum opposes the 5-minute short signal.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record