Expired Sell High Risk Practice trade, no real money Bracket

U Nasdaq 100 (US100) Sell stop

News trading 5M setup Pre-news breakout Data rules Published Ended 6 Nov, 14:00 UTC

No tradeEntry not reached in time

Nasdaq 100 (US100) chart

Bid prices from the tracking feed. Press play to watch the trade.
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Levels

Entry
26,908.6 zone 26,904.0 to 26,913.2
Stop loss
27,082.8 174.2 points from entry
Target 1
26,734.4 not reached
Target 2
26,560.2 not reached
Target 3
26,385.9 not reached

One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.

Breakout bracket

Breakout bracket: buy above 27,082.8 or sell below 26,908.6. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.

The other side is Buy stop #64 (expired).

Why this trade

This is a mechanical sell signal for the Nasdaq 100, based on a Pre-news breakout strategy. The rule brackets the 30-minute range prior to a high-impact release—in this case, US Nonfarm Payrolls. A sell stop is placed at 26908.6, a half ATR below the range low of 26931.7. The broader context shows a strong daily and H4 downtrend, aligning with this short side, though the daily RSI is oversold. The trade is invalidated if price spikes to the stop loss at 27082.8, which acts as the buy trigger for the opposite bracket. Note that severe news spikes often cause slippage.

ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.

About the strategy: Pre-news breakout

The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.

Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.

The idea, explained: Trading the news

Timeline

  1. Signal published 27,034.5
  2. Reason added
  3. Confidence scored Score 52
  4. Expired

Proof it was not edited

When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.

Hash
d5de015bbd74d1018ca043f792c54750c879a505358d251ea53849a388574531
Previous hash
61287f50099f8a082c12f2594409c914db29ea020daf395047d87586e5b998e1
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"US100","side":"sell","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:US100:1793971800","entry":"26908.6","zone_lo":"26904.0","zone_hi":"26913.2","sl":"27082.8","tp1":"26734.4","tp2":"26560.2","tp3":"26385.9","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:26:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:00:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T16:30:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"61287f50099f8a082c12f2594409c914db29ea020daf395047d87586e5b998e1"}

Risk High Risk

  • Track record: flagged

    Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.

  • Type of trading: flagged

    News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.

  • News: flagged

    A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.

  • Costs: passed

    The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).

High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.

Confidence

The daily downtrend aligns with a potential short trigger, but unpredictable Nonfarm Payrolls volatility and slippage risks keep the probability near a coin flip.

Not enough closed signals scored 50-59 yet (8 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.

Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record

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