EUR/USD Sell stop
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11562 zone 1.11558 to 1.11566
- Stop loss
- 1.11722 16 pips from entry; moved to 1.11562
- Target 1
- 1.11402 hit 6 Nov, 14:11 UTC
- Target 2
- 1.11241 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.11081 not reached
- Filled
- 1.11562 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
- Closed
- 1.11562 6 Nov, 15:11 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 1.11722 or sell below 1.11562. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Buy stop #60 (cancelled).
Why this trade
This is a mechanical sell stop on EUR/USD at 1.11562, generated by a pre-news breakout rule four minutes before the US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The strategy brackets the previous 30-minute range (1.11582 to 1.11702), placing a sell order half a 5-minute ATR below the low. EUR/USD is currently in a daily downtrend around 1.11624. The rule assumes the jobs data will spark a sharp, one-way move downward. If triggered, the stop is set at the opposite side of the range at 1.11722, so any volatility whipsaw during the release will quickly invalidate it.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Pre-news breakout
The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.
Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Signal published 1.11624
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 42
- Entry filled 1.11562
- TP1 hit 1.11402
- Stop moved to entry 1.11562
- Trade closed 1.11562 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.33R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 12f53c5c2a1bf12ce29bf5268664bd66aba16d20ecd1927275a25186a3022ab9
- Previous hash
- d3763ed253c54bcc670d56c733b9147b4d686cd6db059b729311ab8ce4827219
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:EURUSD:1793971800","entry":"1.11562","zone_lo":"1.11558","zone_hi":"1.11566","sl":"1.11722","tp1":"1.11402","tp2":"1.11241","tp3":"1.11081","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:26:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:00:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T16:30:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"d3763ed253c54bcc670d56c733b9147b4d686cd6db059b729311ab8ce4827219"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy has historically underperformed on EUR/USD, and slippage during US jobs data usually worsens real-world results.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record