Gold (XAU/USD) Sell stop
Gold (XAU/USD) chart
Levels
- Entry
- 4,052.78 zone 4,052.32 to 4,053.25
- Stop loss
- 4,069.48 16.7 dollars from entry; moved to 4,052.78
- Target 1
- 4,036.09 hit 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
- Target 2
- 4,019.40 not reached
- Target 3
- 4,002.71 not reached
- Filled
- 4,052.78 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
- Closed
- 4,052.78 6 Nov, 13:34 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 4,069.48 or sell below 4,052.78. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Buy stop #58 (cancelled).
Why this trade
This is a mechanical rule-based sell stop on Gold at 4052.78, targeting a quick drop following the Nonfarm Payrolls release. The "Pre-news breakout" strategy brackets the last 30 minutes of price action just before the event, setting the entry half a 5-minute ATR below the range. If triggered, the trade relies on a sharp, sustained move. Gold's daily trend is down, but the 4052.78 entry sits just above the S1 level at 4048.77 and the 4-hour EMA20 at 4046.07, which could act as immediate support. The trade is invalidated if price reverses to hit the opposite side of the bracket at 4069.48.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Pre-news breakout
The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.
Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Signal published 4,061.40
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 48
- Entry filled 4,052.78
- TP1 hit 4,036.09
- Stop moved to entry 4,052.78
- Trade closed 4,052.78 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.33R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 99be188c9b958f61a183978ba6d573076d9f15fd1dca3058d6da88dcfe61b6d7
- Previous hash
- 977d0f83ba1ebded28d0daa471af3680a423c4020647f8370c1dc2c090ca0098
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"XAUUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:XAUUSD:1793971800","entry":"4052.78","zone_lo":"4052.32","zone_hi":"4053.25","sl":"4069.48","tp1":"4036.09","tp2":"4019.40","tp3":"4002.71","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:26:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:00:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T16:30:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"977d0f83ba1ebded28d0daa471af3680a423c4020647f8370c1dc2c090ca0098"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
NFP volatility often causes whipsaws, and the entry just above S1 and the H4 EMA20 risks snagging on immediate support.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record