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Closed Sell High Risk Practice trade, no real money

Gold (XAU/USD) Sell at market

Scalping 5M setup EMA 9/21 scalper Data rules Published Ended 6 Nov, 10:30 UTC

−0.94R−5.2 dollars · Stop loss hit

Gold (XAU/USD) chart

Bid prices from the tracking feed. Press play to watch the trade.
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Levels

Entry
4,064.73 zone 4,064.36 to 4,065.10
Stop loss
4,070.24 5.5 dollars from entry
Target 1
4,059.22 not reached
Target 2
4,053.71 not reached
Target 3
4,048.20 not reached
Filled
4,065.04 6 Nov, 10:26 UTC
Closed
4,070.24 6 Nov, 10:30 UTC

One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.

Why this trade

This is a mechanical short signal on Gold (XAU/USD) generated when the 5-minute 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA while price was under the 200 EMA. The market entry is at 4064.73, targeting a quick drop to 4059.22, with a tight stop loss at 4070.24. While the daily trend leans bearish, this scalping strategy has a historically negative tested record (-0.02R per trade) on gold over the past year. Furthermore, the previous day's low at 4057.74 poses a significant support hurdle just below the first target. A move above the 4070.24 stop invalidates the trade.

ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.

About the strategy: EMA 9/21 scalper

The most common scalping setup: on 5-minute bars, buy at market when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA while price is above the 200 EMA, and sell on the mirror image. London and New York hours only (07:00 to 20:00 UTC, weekdays), at most six a day per instrument. Stop 1.5 ATR (5-minute), targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes when the EMAs cross back, or after two hours.

Caveat: One year only (the price feed keeps a year of 5-minute bars): -0.03R per trade over 1,814 trades, gold -0.02R, Nasdaq 100 -0.04R. On EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Bitcoin the same rule lost 0.17 to 0.20R a trade, because a 5-minute stop is only a few spreads wide, so it is not run there; that choice was made on the same data.

The idea, explained: Forex scalping

Timeline

  1. Entry filled 4,065.04
  2. Signal published 4,064.69
  3. Reason added
  4. Confidence scored Score 46
  5. Trade closed 4,070.24 Stop loss hit, −0.94R
  6. Loss review added

Why it lost, against why it was taken AI review

The trade was expected to drop quickly toward the first target of 4059.22 following the mechanical EMA 9/21 cross below the 200 EMA on the 5-minute chart. Instead, price initially moved higher before hitting the stop loss at 4060.24 after roughly four minutes.

The reason it was taken

This is a mechanical short signal on Gold (XAU/USD) generated when the 5-minute 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA while price was under the 200 EMA. The market entry is at 4064.73, targeting a quick drop to 4059.22, with a tight stop loss at 4070.24. While the daily trend leans bearish, this scalping strategy has a historically negative tested record (-0.02R per trade) on gold over the past year. Furthermore, the previous day's low at 4057.74 poses a significant support hurdle just below the first target. A move above the 4070.24 stop invalidates the trade.

What happened

Fill occurred at 4065.04 UTC 10:26. Price first reached a best excursion of +0.016R, then turned and hit the worst excursion of -0.967R at the stop loss of 4060.24 when the trade closed at 10:30 UTC. The 5-minute bar from 10:25 to 10:30 showed open 4067.25, high 4068.29, low 4066.60, close 4069.26.

The entry reason did not hold

The ENTRY_REASON cited the 5-minute 9 EMA crossing below the 21 EMA while price remained below the 200 EMA at 10:25, plus the prior day's low at 4057.74 as support. At close the bar had moved well above entry level with no remaining data showing the EMA conditions still intact, so the named short setup no longer held.

Lesson: No clear lesson: the setup was valid and the stop was hit by normal volatility.

Proof it was not edited

When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.

Hash
18e9657f1ab5284670ff9548f9f0c76b083d9b7a53d6cb126e249be184f69cef
Previous hash
136d14e92a2b425c1ef9d4153086f4e76683a9733bf5e1aec1ad92bb57727ef2
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"XAUUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"scalp_ema_5m","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"4064.73","zone_lo":"4064.36","zone_hi":"4065.10","sl":"4070.24","tp1":"4059.22","tp2":"4053.71","tp3":"4048.20","created_at":"2026-11-06T10:26:02Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T10:41:02Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T12:26:02Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"136d14e92a2b425c1ef9d4153086f4e76683a9733bf5e1aec1ad92bb57727ef2"}

Risk High Risk

  • Track record: flagged

    Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.

  • Type of trading: flagged

    Scalping trade: moves are quick, and the spread takes a bigger share of a small stop.

  • News: passed

    No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.

  • Costs: passed

    The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).

High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.

Confidence

The strategy has a negative historical track record on gold, and the previous day's low presents a strong support hurdle near the first target.

Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.

Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record

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