EUR/USD Buy at market
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11738 zone 1.11731 to 1.11745
- Stop loss
- 1.11695 4.3 pips from entry; moved to 1.11738
- Target 1
- 1.11781 hit 6 Nov, 11:23 UTC
- Target 2
- 1.11824 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.11867 not reached
- Filled
- 1.11743 6 Nov, 10:16 UTC
- Closed
- 1.11738 6 Nov, 11:56 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a market buy on EUR/USD at 1.11738, driven by the "Post-news drift" strategy. This mechanical rule buys when the 15-minute candle during a data release closes up. Here, the candle for Retail Sales closed higher, triggering the entry. However, the daily trend is down, and EUR/USD has already dropped significantly today, trading near the S2 support level. Historical testing for this strategy shows a negative expectancy for EUR/USD (-0.06R per trade). The trade is invalidated if price drops to the stop at 1.11695, located at the low of the news candle, making it vulnerable given today's bearish momentum.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Post-news drift
Trade the first reaction. When the 15-minute candle that contains a high-impact data release closes, buy at market if it closed up and sell if it closed down, with the stop at the other end of that candle (at least half an ATR away). Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; trades close after six hours at most.
Caveat: -0.08R per trade over 599 trades in the last year (gold +0.02R, EUR/USD -0.06R, USD/JPY -0.07R, Nasdaq 100 -0.23R). Our 2023-2026 study found the same rule positive in every year on gold for US jobs and Fed days only (14-18 trades a year), but negative when all release types were included.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Entry filled 1.11743
- Signal published 1.11722
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 35
- TP1 hit 1.11781
- Stop moved to entry 1.11738
- Trade closed 1.11738 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.22R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 136d14e92a2b425c1ef9d4153086f4e76683a9733bf5e1aec1ad92bb57727ef2
- Previous hash
- 159b7541af2facf45cdc27e50543b74082d8846ca829dc0910777eb2779899dc
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"buy","order_type":"market","timeframe":"15m","strategy":"news_drift_15m","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.11738","zone_lo":"1.11731","zone_hi":"1.11745","sl":"1.11695","tp1":"1.11781","tp2":"1.11824","tp3":"1.11867","created_at":"2026-11-06T10:16:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T10:31:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T16:16:01Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"159b7541af2facf45cdc27e50543b74082d8846ca829dc0910777eb2779899dc"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 23% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy has a historically negative expectancy, and buying here fights strong downward momentum on the daily timeframe.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record