USD/CAD Buy limit
USD/CAD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.40345 zone 1.40333 to 1.40356
- Stop loss
- 1.40286 5.9 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.40403 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.40462 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.40521 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This buy limit on USD/CAD follows a mechanical rule based on Smart Money Concepts. The strategy identifies a bullish 1-hour fair value gap between 1.40314 and 1.40375 while the 4-hour 50 EMA is rising, placing a limit order at the gap's midpoint of 1.40345. The broader daily trend remains down, with price currently approaching resistance near the 20-day EMA at 1.40455. The stop is placed just below the gap at 1.40286. This leaves the position vulnerable, as the stop sits before the nearest structural support at the previous day's high of 1.40228.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: SMC fair value gap
Fair value gaps are the core of the ICT / Smart Money Concepts style, the most actively maintained family in our libraries (for example the FVG Gold EA and ICT Gold EA, both updated in 2025-26). On 1-hour bars, a bullish gap is a candle whose low sits above the high from two candles earlier, at least 0.3 ATR tall, while the 4-hour 50 EMA is rising: a buy limit waits at the middle of the gap for 6 hours, with the stop just under the gap. Bearish gaps mirror it. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; max 48 hours.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Negative on all 11 instruments tested. Hourly bars cannot show whether a target was touched before the limit filled, so the test gave no credit for that; the true figure may be a little better. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Fair value gaps
Timeline
- Signal published 1.40398
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 40
- Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
- Expired
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- a7663f9758e01905196e1341739892790738e43214d560aeff77e508ad67bc89
- Previous hash
- 74afce7f4d1cb5617ecbf5f525061a52572eeb867fc3eacc7cdc493295c350be
Show the signed record
{"v":1,"symbol":"USDCAD","side":"buy","order_type":"limit","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_fvg_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.40345","zone_lo":"1.40333","zone_hi":"1.40356","sl":"1.40286","tp1":"1.40403","tp2":"1.40462","tp3":"1.40521","created_at":"2026-11-06T05:01:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T13:25:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-09T08:37:01Z","prev_hash":"74afce7f4d1cb5617ecbf5f525061a52572eeb867fc3eacc7cdc493295c350be"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 31% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.
Confidence
The strategy has a historically negative expectancy, and the stop is positioned above the nearest structural support, leaving the position vulnerable.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record