GBP/USD Buy at market
GBP/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.33918 zone 1.33888 to 1.33948
- Stop loss
- 1.33463 45.5 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.34373 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.34828 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.35282 not reached
- Filled
- 1.33914 6 Nov, 09:01 UTC
- Closed
- 1.33463 6 Nov, 14:15 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical buy signal on GBP/USD based on Larry Connors' RSI(2) pullback strategy. The rule triggers on the 4-hour chart when the 2-period RSI drops below 10 while the price remains above its 200 SMA. Currently, the RSI(2) has plunged to 3.5 following a sharp intraday drop, while price holds above the 200 SMA at 1.33031. The daily trend remains mixed but generally supported above 1.3364. The trade relies on a short-term oversold bounce, but will be proven wrong if selling pressure continues and triggers the stop loss at 1.33463, situated just below the 1.335 round number and recent 5-day lows.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: RSI(2) pullback
RSI strategies are the third most starred family in our Pine library (179 scripts, 4,691 stars); this is Larry Connors' RSI(2). On 4-hour bars, buy at market when RSI 2 drops under 10 while price is above its 200 SMA, and sell when RSI 2 rises above 90 below the 200 SMA. Stop 1.5 ATR, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes when price crosses back over the 5 SMA, or after 10 bars.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Close to break-even before costs but slightly negative after them; positive on 1 of 11 instruments. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: The RSI indicator
Timeline
- Entry filled 1.33914
- Signal published 1.33899
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 46
- Trade closed 1.33463 Stop loss hit, −0.99R
- Loss review added
Why it lost, against why it was taken AI review
The trade anticipated a short-term bounce based on an oversold RSI(2) condition while the price remained above its 200 SMA. Instead, price only drifted marginally higher before strong US employment data triggered a sharp sell-off that hit the stop loss.
The reason it was taken
This is a mechanical buy signal on GBP/USD based on Larry Connors' RSI(2) pullback strategy. The rule triggers on the 4-hour chart when the 2-period RSI drops below 10 while the price remains above its 200 SMA. Currently, the RSI(2) has plunged to 3.5 following a sharp intraday drop, while price holds above the 200 SMA at 1.33031. The daily trend remains mixed but generally supported above 1.3364. The trade relies on a short-term oversold bounce, but will be proven wrong if selling pressure continues and triggers the stop loss at 1.33463, situated just below the 1.335 round number and recent 5-day lows.
What happened
Following the fill at 1.33914 at 09:01 UTC, the price consolidated and slowly ground to a peak of 1.34035 at 12:20 UTC, offering a minor favourable excursion of 0.266R. The momentum shifted downwards shortly after, accelerating significantly following the US data releases at 13:30 UTC. The steep decline continued until the stop loss at 1.33463 was triggered during the 14:15 UTC bar.
While the mechanical condition of the price holding above the 200 SMA remained true at the close, the expected oversold bounce failed to materialise. The trade was invalidated exactly as the entry notes warned, with intense selling pressure driving the price through the stop loss.
During the trade
- Fed's Williams speech
- BoE's Pill speech
- GBP/USD tests the key 1.3400 psychological pivot
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
- Unemployment Rate
Lesson: Holding short-term technical mean-reversion trades through major macroeconomic events like Nonfarm Payrolls introduces fundamental risk that can easily overwhelm oversold signals.
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- a952ab82d5a6c666174311cb3cee616faa2aaa96219623be89630fbce0e5dc43
- Previous hash
- f9691e942f36b5346e1c92284e5f39a14b042a4c9402d9ead85980a2180f005e
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"GBPUSD","side":"buy","order_type":"market","timeframe":"4h","strategy":"pop_rsi2_4h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.33918","zone_lo":"1.33888","zone_hi":"1.33948","sl":"1.33463","tp1":"1.34373","tp2":"1.34828","tp3":"1.35282","created_at":"2026-11-06T09:01:04Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T09:16:04Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-08T17:16:04Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"f9691e942f36b5346e1c92284e5f39a14b042a4c9402d9ead85980a2180f005e"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Swing trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The score reflects the strategy's negative historical profit factor, offset slightly by a stop loss placed safely below the 1.33703 five-day low.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record