USD/CAD Sell at market
USD/CAD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.40726 zone 1.40714 to 1.40738
- Stop loss
- 1.40902 17.6 pips from entry; moved to 1.40726
- Target 1
- 1.40550 hit 6 Nov, 12:20 UTC
- Target 2
- 1.40373 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.40197 not reached
- Filled
- 1.40726 6 Nov, 09:01 UTC
- Closed
- 1.40726 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical short trade on USD/CAD, generated by the Bollinger Band fade strategy. The rule triggers a sell when the 1-hour candle closes above the upper band with RSI over 70. Here, the price closed at 1.40711, fractionally above the 1.4071 upper band, alongside an overbought RSI of 82.5. Note that this specific strategy carries a consistently negative tested record across multiple years. Contextually, price is testing the daily R2 resistance at 1.4075. The trade is invalidated if momentum pushes through R2 to trigger the 1.5 ATR stop loss at 1.40902.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Bollinger Band fade
Bollinger Band strategies are the second most starred family in our Pine library (99 scripts, 6,061 stars; for example Bollinger Bands Winner). On 1-hour bars, buy at market when price closes below the lower band (20, 2) with RSI 14 under 30, and sell when it closes above the upper band with RSI over 70. Stop 1.5 ATR, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes back at the middle band.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Lost in every year on average; positive on only 2 of 11 instruments (AUD/USD +0.04R). Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Bollinger Bands
Timeline
- Entry filled 1.40726
- Signal published 1.40727
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 42
- TP1 hit 1.40550
- Stop moved to entry 1.40726
- Trade closed 1.40726 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.33R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- f9691e942f36b5346e1c92284e5f39a14b042a4c9402d9ead85980a2180f005e
- Previous hash
- 71177615a2a5bf10eb77b668c4d63dcad12772f467a96841075f8fe4f4eb8399
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"USDCAD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_bb_fade_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.40726","zone_lo":"1.40714","zone_hi":"1.40738","sl":"1.40902","tp1":"1.40550","tp2":"1.40373","tp3":"1.40197","created_at":"2026-11-06T09:01:04Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T09:16:04Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-07T18:52:04Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"71177615a2a5bf10eb77b668c4d63dcad12772f467a96841075f8fe4f4eb8399"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 10% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy has a consistently negative tested record across assets, even though price is currently stalling near R2 resistance.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record