AUD/USD Sell limit
AUD/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 0.69081 zone 0.69069 to 0.69093
- Stop loss
- 0.69163 8.2 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 0.68999 not reached
- Target 2
- 0.68916 not reached
- Target 3
- 0.68834 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical sell limit on AUD/USD at 0.69081, triggered by an SMC fair value gap rule. It targets the middle of a bearish 1-hour gap (between 0.69011 and 0.69151) while the 4-hour 50 EMA declines. The broader context supports sellers, as daily and 4-hour trends point downward, with the price near the 20-day low of 0.68932. However, this specific mechanical rule has a historically negative tested record across major assets. It relies on a quick rejection; if momentum pushes higher, a tight stop at 0.69163 will close the trade just above the gap and below the previous day's low.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: SMC fair value gap
Fair value gaps are the core of the ICT / Smart Money Concepts style, the most actively maintained family in our libraries (for example the FVG Gold EA and ICT Gold EA, both updated in 2025-26). On 1-hour bars, a bullish gap is a candle whose low sits above the high from two candles earlier, at least 0.3 ATR tall, while the 4-hour 50 EMA is rising: a buy limit waits at the middle of the gap for 6 hours, with the stop just under the gap. Bearish gaps mirror it. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; max 48 hours.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Negative on all 11 instruments tested. Hourly bars cannot show whether a target was touched before the limit filled, so the test gave no credit for that; the true figure may be a little better. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Fair value gaps
Timeline
- Signal published 0.68988
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 35
- Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
- Expired
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 74afce7f4d1cb5617ecbf5f525061a52572eeb867fc3eacc7cdc493295c350be
- Previous hash
- 3569d9b3d18d0e2c200d0c494b57903b837f182a52df9f7d62a2198802d84ecf
Show the signed record
{"v":1,"symbol":"AUDUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"limit","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_fvg_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"0.69081","zone_lo":"0.69069","zone_hi":"0.69093","sl":"0.69163","tp1":"0.68999","tp2":"0.68916","tp3":"0.68834","created_at":"2026-11-06T05:01:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T13:25:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-09T08:37:01Z","prev_hash":"3569d9b3d18d0e2c200d0c494b57903b837f182a52df9f7d62a2198802d84ecf"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 15% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.
Confidence
The strategy's historical performance is strongly negative, despite the trade aligning with the established downward trend on the 4-hour and daily charts.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record