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Closed Buy High Risk Practice trade, no real money

GBP/USD Buy at market

Intraday 1H setup Bollinger Band fade Data rules Published Ended 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC

−1.00R−21.2 pips · Stop loss hit

GBP/USD chart

Bid prices from the tracking feed. Press play to watch the trade.
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Levels

Entry
1.34017 zone 1.34003 to 1.34031
Stop loss
1.33804 21.3 pips from entry
Target 1
1.34230 not reached
Target 2
1.34443 not reached
Target 3
1.34656 not reached
Filled
1.34016 6 Nov, 08:02 UTC
Closed
1.33804 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC

One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.

Why this trade

This is a market buy on GBP/USD at 1.34017 based on a mechanical Bollinger Band fade strategy. The rule triggers when the 1-hour price closes below the lower band (1.34073) with the RSI under 30 (currently 25.2). The pair has dropped to around 1.3400, sitting between the S2 and S3 pivot levels amid a mixed daily trend. The stop at 1.33804 is placed above the S3 support (1.33729) and the 5-day low (1.33703), leaving it vulnerable if the current drop continues. Additionally, this strategy historically struggles, carrying a poor profit factor of 0.8.

ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.

About the strategy: Bollinger Band fade

Bollinger Band strategies are the second most starred family in our Pine library (99 scripts, 6,061 stars; for example Bollinger Bands Winner). On 1-hour bars, buy at market when price closes below the lower band (20, 2) with RSI 14 under 30, and sell when it closes above the upper band with RSI over 70. Stop 1.5 ATR, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes back at the middle band.

Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Lost in every year on average; positive on only 2 of 11 instruments (AUD/USD +0.04R). Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.

The idea, explained: Bollinger Bands

Timeline

  1. Signal published 1.33998
  2. Entry filled 1.34016
  3. Reason added
  4. Confidence scored Score 38
  5. Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
  6. Trade closed 1.33804 Stop loss hit, −1.00R
  7. Loss review added

Why it lost, against why it was taken AI review

The strategy anticipated a mean-reversion bounce from the lower Bollinger Band. Instead, price chopped around the entry before plunging through the stop loss following strong US employment data.

The reason it was taken

This is a market buy on GBP/USD at 1.34017 based on a mechanical Bollinger Band fade strategy. The rule triggers when the 1-hour price closes below the lower band (1.34073) with the RSI under 30 (currently 25.2). The pair has dropped to around 1.3400, sitting between the S2 and S3 pivot levels amid a mixed daily trend. The stop at 1.33804 is placed above the S3 support (1.33729) and the 5-day low (1.33703), leaving it vulnerable if the current drop continues. Additionally, this strategy historically struggles, carrying a poor profit factor of 0.8.

What happened

Following the fill at 1.34016 at 08:02 UTC, price managed a brief move in favour to a peak of 1.34096 (+0.37R) during the 08:15 bar. It then drifted sideways to lower, testing 1.33807 by 10:20 before recovering near the entry level. At 13:30 UTC, a sharp drop immediately triggered the 1.33804 stop loss, with the closing candle ultimately reaching a low of 1.33601.

The entry reason did not hold

The mechanical Bollinger fade conditions were valid at entry, but placing the stop at 1.33804 above key support like S3 (1.33729) left it overly exposed. Ultimately, the technical premise was completely overwhelmed by blowout US employment data.

During the trade

  • Fed's Williams speech
  • BoE's Pill speech
  • Nonfarm Payrolls
  • Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
  • Unemployment Rate

Lesson: Avoid holding tight technical fade setups into tier-one economic releases like Nonfarm Payrolls, as fundamental shocks easily override oversold conditions.

Proof it was not edited

When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.

Hash
0463d9fa114fc170a6c833d19a139b417e2ad17fdd48fd7d6356c0e5e0b00a4b
Previous hash
dc10046e8f8674330290a75286de2c81070de1059ff8a1f6371560aa18b92b41
Show the signed record
{"v":1,"symbol":"GBPUSD","side":"buy","order_type":"market","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_bb_fade_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.34017","zone_lo":"1.34003","zone_hi":"1.34031","sl":"1.33804","tp1":"1.34230","tp2":"1.34443","tp3":"1.34656","created_at":"2026-11-06T08:01:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T08:16:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-07T17:52:01Z","prev_hash":"dc10046e8f8674330290a75286de2c81070de1059ff8a1f6371560aa18b92b41"}

Risk High Risk

  • Track record: flagged

    Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.

  • Type of trading: passed

    Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.

  • News: passed

    No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.

  • Costs: passed

    The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).

High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.

Confidence

The mechanical strategy has a poor historical record, and the stop is vulnerably placed above the S3 support and 5-day low.

Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.

Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record

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