EUR/USD Buy at market
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11810 zone 1.11797 to 1.11823
- Stop loss
- 1.11617 19.3 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.12003 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.12196 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.12389 not reached
- Filled
- 1.11796 6 Nov, 08:01 UTC
- Closed
- 1.11617 6 Nov, 13:10 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a market buy on EUR/USD at 1.1181. It follows a mechanical "Bollinger Band fade" rule, which triggers a buy when the 1-hour candle closes below the lower Bollinger Band with the RSI falling below 30. Historically, this strategy has a poor tested record across major assets, losing on average. The entry attempts to catch an oversold bounce as the pair drops in a daily downtrend, having already fulfilled 104% of its average daily range. The stop loss is set at 1.11617, placed logically just beneath the S2 support level at 1.11643 to protect against further downside continuation.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Bollinger Band fade
Bollinger Band strategies are the second most starred family in our Pine library (99 scripts, 6,061 stars; for example Bollinger Bands Winner). On 1-hour bars, buy at market when price closes below the lower band (20, 2) with RSI 14 under 30, and sell when it closes above the upper band with RSI over 70. Stop 1.5 ATR, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes back at the middle band.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Lost in every year on average; positive on only 2 of 11 instruments (AUD/USD +0.04R). Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Bollinger Bands
Timeline
- Entry filled 1.11796
- Signal published 1.11794
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 35
- Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
- Trade closed 1.11617 Stop loss hit, −0.93R
- Loss review added
Why it lost, against why it was taken AI review
The trade anticipated an oversold bounce after EUR/USD closed below its 1-hour lower Bollinger Band. Instead, the pair managed only a minor retracement before resuming its daily downtrend and stopping out the position.
The reason it was taken
This is a market buy on EUR/USD at 1.1181. It follows a mechanical "Bollinger Band fade" rule, which triggers a buy when the 1-hour candle closes below the lower Bollinger Band with the RSI falling below 30. Historically, this strategy has a poor tested record across major assets, losing on average. The entry attempts to catch an oversold bounce as the pair drops in a daily downtrend, having already fulfilled 104% of its average daily range. The stop loss is set at 1.11617, placed logically just beneath the S2 support level at 1.11643 to protect against further downside continuation.
What happened
Filled at 1.11796 at 08:01 UTC, the pair initially moved in the trade's favour, reaching a peak of 1.11916 (0.622R) by 08:35 UTC. However, it failed to reach the first target and entered a steady decline. Selling pressure intensified after 12:45 UTC, breaking the S2 support level and triggering the stop loss at 1.11617 during the 13:10 UTC bar, which traded as low as 1.11582.
The entry attempted to catch an oversold bounce, relying on 1-hour Bollinger Bands and the S2 support level at 1.11643. By the close, the persistent daily downtrend had driven price firmly through that support, invalidating the counter-trend thesis.
During the trade
- Euro to US Dollar Forecast: 1.10 Target as Election Gains Fade - Rabobank
- Fed's Williams speech
- ECB's Lane speech
- Retail Sales (YoY)
- Retail Sales (MoM)
- Euro: Rotation into Dollar cash caps gains against US Dollar – ING
Lesson: Fading a strong daily downtrend based on intraday oversold conditions carries a high risk of failure, especially when executing a mechanical strategy known to have a historically poor track record.
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- dc10046e8f8674330290a75286de2c81070de1059ff8a1f6371560aa18b92b41
- Previous hash
- 3935d54354effaf77cc7dd23ec93bbee6f901ec2e09f2a6d1bfe42da5dca5fb7
Show the signed record
{"v":1,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"buy","order_type":"market","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_bb_fade_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.11810","zone_lo":"1.11797","zone_hi":"1.11823","sl":"1.11617","tp1":"1.12003","tp2":"1.12196","tp3":"1.12389","created_at":"2026-11-06T08:01:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T08:16:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-07T17:52:01Z","prev_hash":"3935d54354effaf77cc7dd23ec93bbee6f901ec2e09f2a6d1bfe42da5dca5fb7"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Retail Sales (YoY) on 6 Nov at 10:00 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.
Confidence
The strategy has a poor tested record and is attempting to fade a clear daily downtrend.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record