EUR/USD Sell limit signal #16

EUR/USD chart

Bid prices from the tracking feed. Press play to watch the trade.

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Levels

Entry: 1.12200 zone 1.12172 to 1.12228
Stop loss: 1.12850 65 pips from entry
Target 1: 1.11643 not reached
Target 2: 1.11259 not reached
Target 3: 1.10800 not reached

One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.

Why this trade

The daily trend remains firmly down, trading below the 20-day and 200-day EMAs, backed by CFTC positioning showing speculators adding to their net short of -143,894 contracts. With US Nonfarm Payrolls at 13:30 UTC today, we look to fade any bullish volatility spike into resistance. We place a limit order to sell at 1.12200, just below the daily pivot at 1.12293 and near the 20-day EMA (1.12147). The stop goes above the 5-day high of 1.12723 at 1.12850, invalidating the bearish structure. Targets are S2 (1.11643) and S3 (1.11259).

ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.EventA scheduled economic release near the trade.

About the strategy: AI swing desk

Once a day before London, ForexR AI reads 4-hour and daily bars with the facts pack (levels, trend, positioning, the week's calendar) and proposes at most one position trade per instrument, held for days to two weeks, or none. Code checks every level against the 4-hour ATR before it is published.

The idea, explained: Swing trading

Timeline

6 Nov, 07:11 UTC Signal published 1.11818
6 Nov, 07:11 UTC Reason added
6 Nov, 07:11 UTC Confidence scored Score 48
6 Nov, 08:14 UTC Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
6 Nov, 13:10 UTC Cancelled

Proof it was not edited

When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.

Hash: 09bc2f357e2d98560a42fcb6bc0f2eb2fefdd577e84b661e6cd5839822aa9388
Previous hash: 9b7ae8159e023e021a7961d5ff8fc88b430ede02b53376b2475a05bbb33ff5c1

Show the signed record

{"v":1,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"limit","timeframe":"4h","strategy":"ai_swing","source":"ai","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.12200","zone_lo":"1.12172","zone_hi":"1.12228","sl":"1.12850","tp1":"1.11643","tp2":"1.11259","tp3":"1.10800","created_at":"2026-11-06T07:11:03Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T19:11:03Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-13T07:11:03Z","prev_hash":"9b7ae8159e023e021a7961d5ff8fc88b430ede02b53376b2475a05bbb33ff5c1"}

Risk High Risk

Track record: passed
AI desk: no backtest, and its live record was not losing when this was published (judged after 20 closed trades).
Type of trading: passed
Swing trade, not a scalping or news trade.
News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Retail Sales (YoY) on 6 Nov at 10:00 UTC.
Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).

High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.

Confidence

Daily downtrend supports a fade at pivot/EMA, but NFP today and mixed H4 cut the edge.

Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.

Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record