EUR/USD Sell at market
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11407 zone 1.11380 to 1.11434
- Stop loss
- 1.11813 40.6 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.11001 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.10594 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.10188 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical sell signal generated by a classic EMA 20/50 crossover strategy on the 4-hour chart. The system triggers a short position because the fast 20-period moving average has just crossed below the slower 50-period moving average (1.11927 versus 1.11949). Historically, this specific rule has a poor tested record with an overall profit factor of 0.96 across major assets, meaning it frequently produces false signals. The trade targets a 1R minimum drop to 1.11001. The idea is invalidated if price reverses and hits the stop loss at 1.11813, set 1.5 times the Average True Range above the entry.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: EMA 20/50 crossover
The most common strategy in our Pine library (moving-average crossovers: 251 scripts, 6,083 GitHub stars; for example the Simple EMA20/50 Cross strategy). On 4-hour bars, buy at market when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA and sell when it crosses below. Stop 1.5 ATR from the entry, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; whatever is left closes when the averages cross back.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Positive on 4 of 11 instruments (best silver +0.15R, worst USD/CAD -0.11R). Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Moving averages and crossovers
Timeline
- Signal published 1.11407
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 44
- Expired
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 4b00833a64c10910a40ee58013440b0a719ff6ccbd6bf7ae8a70bca8faab6122
- Previous hash
- 80728c67045711d6eb9a83c29d0adf1b51a559475195a000d508278f5cfba82e
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"4h","strategy":"pop_ema_cross_4h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.11407","zone_lo":"1.11380","zone_hi":"1.11434","sl":"1.11813","tp1":"1.11001","tp2":"1.10594","tp3":"1.10188","created_at":"2026-11-07T01:01:06Z","expires_at":"2026-11-07T01:16:06Z","max_close_at":"2026-12-05T01:16:06Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"80728c67045711d6eb9a83c29d0adf1b51a559475195a000d508278f5cfba82e"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Swing trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The mechanical EMA crossover strategy has a historically poor tested profit factor of 0.96, indicating a low baseline probability of success.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record