Ethereum (ETH/USD) Sell at market
Ethereum (ETH/USD) chart
Levels
- Entry
- 2,233.52 zone 2,231.74 to 2,235.30
- Stop loss
- 2,250.44 16.9 dollars from entry
- Target 1
- 2,216.60 not reached
- Target 2
- 2,199.68 not reached
- Target 3
- 2,182.76 not reached
- Filled
- 2,233.73 6 Nov, 23:01 UTC
- Closed
- 2,250.44 7 Nov, 09:00 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a short on Ethereum (ETH/USD) driven by a mechanical Smart Money Concepts rule. The strategy sells at market when the 1-hour price sweeps above the prior high (calculated by the rule as 2246.84) and closes back below it. The stop loss is placed just above the sweep high at 2250.44. While the daily and 4-hour trends are pointing down, which aligns with a bearish bias, this specific strategy has a consistently negative tested record across all assets with a profit factor of 0.77. A move above the 2250.44 stop invalidates the setup.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: SMC liquidity sweep
Smart Money Concepts are the most actively maintained family in our libraries (89 of 91 Pine strategies updated in the last year; SMC expert advisors such as SMC Unified EA). On 1-hour bars: when price trades above the previous day's high and a candle closes back below it within 6 bars, sell at market with the stop above the sweep high (plus 0.1 ATR); the mirror for a sweep of the previous day's low. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; max 48 hours.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Negative on all 11 instruments tested (best USD/JPY -0.04R). Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Smart money concepts
Timeline
- Entry filled 2,233.73
- Signal published 2,233.51
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 40
- Trade closed 2,250.44 Stop loss hit, −0.99R
- Loss review added
Why it lost, against why it was taken AI review
The trade expected Ethereum to decline after sweeping the previous day's high, anticipating a downward continuation in line with the daily trend. Instead, price immediately began a slow, steady grind higher that eventually breached the sweep high and triggered the stop loss.
The reason it was taken
This is a short on Ethereum (ETH/USD) driven by a mechanical Smart Money Concepts rule. The strategy sells at market when the 1-hour price sweeps above the prior high (calculated by the rule as 2246.84) and closes back below it. The stop loss is placed just above the sweep high at 2250.44. While the daily and 4-hour trends are pointing down, which aligns with a bearish bias, this specific strategy has a consistently negative tested record across all assets with a profit factor of 0.77. A move above the 2250.44 stop invalidates the setup.
What happened
Filled at 2233.73 at 23:01 UTC, the short position never moved into profit, recording a best excursion of 0R. Price spent the next ten hours grinding steadily higher against the trade. After an initial push to 2247.63 at 02:00 UTC, Ethereum consolidated briefly before resuming its ascent. This upward drift continued until the stop loss at 2250.44 was hit during the 09:00 UTC bar, closing the trade.
The entry reason explicitly stated that a move above the 2250.44 stop loss would invalidate the setup. By reaching this level, the market negated the bearish liquidity sweep thesis and confirmed the failure of the pattern.
During the trade
- Moscow Exchange sets Dec. 1 to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading
- Ethereum spot ETFs post second day of outflows as $93.19 million exits
- Ether Faces Resistance at $2,263.73 and $2,281.12
Lesson: Trading a mechanical strategy with a known negative edge (0.77 profit factor) makes losses the expected outcome, highlighting the danger of executing setups without a proven statistical advantage.
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 80728c67045711d6eb9a83c29d0adf1b51a559475195a000d508278f5cfba82e
- Previous hash
- 244be262b9855c01b19d13875f172f69990c6032518b70d2fb6c4337b8349a52
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"ETHUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_smc_sweep_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"2233.52","zone_lo":"2231.74","zone_hi":"2235.30","sl":"2250.44","tp1":"2216.60","tp2":"2199.68","tp3":"2182.76","created_at":"2026-11-06T23:01:06Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T23:16:06Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-08T23:16:06Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"244be262b9855c01b19d13875f172f69990c6032518b70d2fb6c4337b8349a52"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 15% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
Despite the daily and H4 downtrends supporting a short, the underlying mechanical strategy has a consistently negative tested expectancy across all tested instruments.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record