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Closed Sell High Risk Practice trade, no real money Pre-launch: tracked privately

USD/CAD Sell at market

Swing 4H setup RSI(2) pullback Data rules Published Ended 6 Nov, 09:26 UTC

−1.00R−40.1 pips · Stop loss hit

USD/CAD chart

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Levels

Entry
1.40398 zone 1.40371 to 1.40425
Stop loss
1.40800 40.2 pips from entry
Target 1
1.39996 not reached
Target 2
1.39595 not reached
Target 3
1.39193 not reached
Filled
1.40399 6 Nov, 05:02 UTC
Closed
1.40800 6 Nov, 09:26 UTC

One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.

Why this trade

This is a mechanical sell signal generated by Larry Connors' RSI(2) pullback strategy. The rule triggers on the 4-hour chart when the 2-period RSI exceeds 90 while price remains below the 200 SMA. Here, the RSI hit 99 with price at 1.40398, below the SMA at 1.41203. The short setup aligns with a broader daily downtrend as price tests resistance near the daily EMAs and the R1 pivot at 1.4046. The strategy's tested historical record is slightly negative after trading costs. The trade is invalidated if price reaches the 1.408 stop loss, safely placed above the R2 resistance level.

ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.

About the strategy: RSI(2) pullback

RSI strategies are the third most starred family in our Pine library (179 scripts, 4,691 stars); this is Larry Connors' RSI(2). On 4-hour bars, buy at market when RSI 2 drops under 10 while price is above its 200 SMA, and sell when RSI 2 rises above 90 below the 200 SMA. Stop 1.5 ATR, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes when price crosses back over the 5 SMA, or after 10 bars.

Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Close to break-even before costs but slightly negative after them; positive on 1 of 11 instruments. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.

The idea, explained: The RSI indicator

Timeline

  1. Signal published 1.40397
  2. Reason added
  3. Confidence scored Score 48
  4. Entry filled 1.40399
  5. Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
  6. Trade closed 1.40800 Stop loss hit, −1.00R
  7. Loss review added

Why it lost, against why it was taken AI review

The trade expected a bearish reversal from an overbought RSI(2) extreme below the 200 SMA. Instead, price trended steadily higher and hit the stop loss without offering any favorable excursion.

The reason it was taken

This is a mechanical sell signal generated by Larry Connors' RSI(2) pullback strategy. The rule triggers on the 4-hour chart when the 2-period RSI exceeds 90 while price remains below the 200 SMA. Here, the RSI hit 99 with price at 1.40398, below the SMA at 1.41203. The short setup aligns with a broader daily downtrend as price tests resistance near the daily EMAs and the R1 pivot at 1.4046. The strategy's tested historical record is slightly negative after trading costs. The trade is invalidated if price reaches the 1.408 stop loss, safely placed above the R2 resistance level.

What happened

Filled at 1.40399 at 05:02 UTC, the trade immediately faced adverse momentum and recorded a best excursion of 0 R. Price climbed consistently over the next four hours, breaking through the R1 pivot at 1.4046. The steady uptrend continued until the 1.408 stop loss was hit during the 09:25 UTC bar.

The entry reason did not hold

The setup relied on price holding resistance near the R1 pivot at 1.4046. By the time the trade closed at 1.408, price had definitively broken above this level and was approaching R2.

During the trade

  • USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades strongly ahead of US/Canada employment data

Lesson: No clear lesson: the setup was valid and the stop was hit by normal volatility.

Proof it was not edited

When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.

Hash
14ed8e1586268298a81b5630d88fb752d974973bf693791f17aef1263a49335c
Previous hash
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Show the signed record
{"v":1,"symbol":"USDCAD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"4h","strategy":"pop_rsi2_4h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.40398","zone_lo":"1.40371","zone_hi":"1.40425","sl":"1.40800","tp1":"1.39996","tp2":"1.39595","tp3":"1.39193","created_at":"2026-11-06T05:01:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T05:16:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-08T13:16:01Z","prev_hash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000"}

Risk High Risk

  • Track record: flagged

    Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.

  • Type of trading: passed

    Swing trade, not a scalping or news trade.

  • News: passed

    No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.

  • Costs: passed

    The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).

High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.

Confidence

The strategy has a slightly negative tested record, though the entry aligns with a test of daily EMA resistance in a broader downtrend.

Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.

Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record

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