US CPI Preview: Key Levels for EUR/USD, Gold, Nasdaq 100

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 14, 2026, 02:35 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

Daily trends are split across EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold and Nasdaq 100 heading into today's 12:30 UTC US CPI release, with gold near $4,150 and the other three holding close to their pivots.

Gold has slipped toward the $4,150 area while EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Nasdaq 100 hold closer to their pivot points heading into today's US Consumer Price Index release. Daily trends are mixed across the board: down for EUR/USD and gold, mixed for USD/JPY, and up for Nasdaq 100, leaving no uniform dollar signal. EUR/USD sits just above the previous day high at 1.1204 and below R1 at 1.12174; USD/JPY holds above the daily pivot at 158.243; gold trades just under the daily pivot at 4170.19; and Nasdaq 100 sits below the previous day high at 30680.9 and under R1 at 30705.

US CPI Release: Time and Estimates

The US Consumer Price Index is due at 12:30 UTC today. The headline month-on-month estimate stands at 0.6%, up from a previous 0.4%, while the year-on-year estimate is 3.6% against a previous 3.4%. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, carries a month-on-month estimate of 0.2% versus a previous 0.3%, with the core year-on-year estimate at 2.5% against a previous 2.4%. It is currently the Asia session, with London opening at 07:00 UTC well ahead of the US data.

Newsflow Into the Release

Coverage into the print has focused heavily on gold's retreat toward the $4,150 area, as reported by FX Street, with several pieces debating whether the pullback marks a corrective wave or a shift in trend. Forex.com separately flagged other pairs, including AUD/USD, consolidating ahead of the same release.

Market Snapshot Ahead of the Data

EUR/USD trades at 1.12052, between the daily pivot at 1.1184 and R1 at 1.12174, with the previous day high at 1.1204 just 1.2 pips below and R1 only 12.2 pips above. Today's range has covered 28% of the 61-pip average true range, with the daily trend pointing down and the four-hour trend mixed. Across the last 10 releases of this CPI event, none arrived above estimate; in the three below-estimate cases, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later twice and lower once, and the typical one-hour move across all 10 was 15.15 pips, the largest being 45 pips on 2026-07-14 — a record of past behavior, not a forecast for today's print. A typical-size move higher would reach 1.12204, clearing R1 at 1.12174, while the same size move lower would reach 1.11901, through the previous day high at 1.1204.

USD/JPY trades at 158.364, between the daily pivot at 158.243 and R1 at 158.673; the pivot is the nearest support 12.1 pips below, and the previous day high at 158.625 is the nearest resistance, 26.1 pips above. The pair has used 23% of its 105.2-pip average true range, with a mixed daily trend against an upward four-hour trend. None of the last 10 releases came in above estimate, and in the three below-estimate cases USD/JPY closed higher an hour later once and lower twice; the typical one-hour move was 7.6 pips, with the largest at 60 pips on 2026-09-11. A typical-size move would take price to 158.44 on the upside or 158.288 on the downside, neither reaching a marked level from here.

Gold trades at 4161.69, between S1 at 4139.97 and the daily pivot at 4170.19, which is the nearest resistance, 8.5 dollars away; the previous day low at 4146.78 is the nearest support, 14.91 dollars below. The metal has covered 26% of its 81.8-dollar average true range, with both the daily and four-hour trends pointing down. None of the last 10 releases came in above estimate, and of the three below-estimate cases gold closed higher an hour later twice and lower once; the typical one-hour move was $21.44, with the largest at $68.25 on 2026-09-11. A typical-size move higher would reach 4183.13, clearing the daily pivot at 4170.19, while the same size move lower would reach 4140.25, through the previous day low at 4146.78.

Nasdaq 100 trades at 30649.9, between the daily pivot at 30536.4 and R1 at 30705; the previous day high at 30680.9 is the nearest resistance, 31 points away, and the daily pivot is the nearest support, 113.5 points below. The index has used 30% of its 438.12-point average true range, with an upward daily trend against a downward four-hour trend. None of the last 10 releases came in above estimate, and all three below-estimate cases saw the index close higher an hour later; the typical one-hour move was 105.45 points, with the largest at 344.4 points on 2026-06-10. A typical-size move higher would reach 30755.4, clearing both the previous day high at 30680.9 and R1 at 30705, while the same size move lower would reach 30544.5, short of any marked level.

Level Maps: Scenarios for Each Instrument

For EUR/USD, clearing R1 at 1.12174 opens a path toward R2 at 1.12375, holding as long as price stays above the daily pivot at 1.1184. A slide through S1 at 1.11639 instead points toward S2 at 1.11305, undone by a recovery back above the daily pivot.

USD/JPY's upside path runs through R1 at 158.673 toward R2 at 159.056 while the daily pivot at 158.243 holds beneath. A break of S1 at 157.86 would open the way to S2 at 157.43, invalidated by a climb back above the pivot.

In gold, a break above R1 at 4193.59 targets R2 at 4223.81, valid while price holds above the daily pivot at 4170.19. The alternative sees a break below S1 at 4139.97 aiming for S2 at 4116.57, undone by a return above the pivot.

On Nasdaq 100, pushing through R1 at 30705 opens the way to R2 at 30849.5, provided the daily pivot at 30536.4 holds beneath. A break of S1 at 30391.9 instead points to S2 at 30223.3, invalidated by a move back above the pivot. Readers mapping these levels by hand can cross-check them with the pivot point calculator.

Positioning and Yields Context

Weekly positioning data as of the week to October 6 shows speculators net short EUR/USD, a position they added to, and net short USD/JPY, also enlarged during the week. In gold, speculators remain net long but trimmed that long over the week, while in Nasdaq 100 futures they are net long and added to that position. US Treasury yields closed on October 13 with the two-year at 4.79%, down 1 basis point, and the ten-year at 5.21%, down 3 basis points, putting the 2s10s curve at 42 basis points.

Other Data on the Calendar

Ahead of the US release, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks today at 06:05 UTC, followed by ECB President Lagarde today at 08:30 UTC. Tomorrow brings Australia's employment change, estimated at 20 against a previous 39.5, and the unemployment rate, seen unchanged at 4.6%, both at 00:30 UTC. A second wave of US data follows tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, with the Retail Sales Control Group carrying a previous reading of 1.4%, headline Retail Sales month-on-month estimated at 0.3% against a previous 1.2%, and core Producer Price Index year-on-year estimated at 4.4% against a previous 4.6%. Full timings can be cross-checked on the economic calendar guide.

Bottom Line

The US CPI prints at 12:30 UTC, with the month-on-month estimate at 0.6% and the year-on-year estimate at 3.6%. Into that data, the level nearest to price is the previous day high at 1.1204 for EUR/USD, the daily pivot at 158.243 for USD/JPY, the daily pivot at 4170.19 for gold, and the previous day high at 30680.9 for Nasdaq 100.