Gold Price Forecast Today: Steady Near $4,161 Before US CPI

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 14, 2026, 00:33 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold sits flat near $4,160.74 and the majors are mixed heading into today's US CPI release at 12:30 UTC, with AUD/USD and Bitcoin both testing their daily pivots.

Asia Session Overview

Ethereum is the standout mover of the session, up 2.77% to $2,511.78, well ahead of the rest of the board. Bitcoin follows with a smaller 0.12% gain to $83,437.47, while WTI crude adds 0.14% to $93.981 and the Nasdaq 100 is up 0.13% at 30,599.3. Gold is flat on the day at $4,160.74. Among the majors, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are each up a modest 0.04%-0.06%, USD/JPY is up 0.02%, and USD/CAD is the session's laggard, down 0.03% to 1.42105.

US Treasury yields closed October 13 with the 2-year at 4.79%, down 1 basis point from October 9, and the 10-year at 5.21%, down 3 basis points over the same stretch, leaving the 2s10s curve at 42 basis points.

Key Setups to Watch

Gold is sitting between the S1 support at $4,139.97 and the daily pivot at $4,170.19, with both the daily and four-hour trend pointing down and the 14-day RSI at 43.3. A reclaim of the pivot at $4,170.19 would shift focus to R1 at $4,193.59, while a slide beneath S1 at $4,139.97 would point to further downside instead, in line with a five-day change that is already negative at -0.07%. Readers working out position sizing around these levels can run the numbers through the pivot point calculator.

AUD/USD trades at 0.6985, between the daily pivot at 0.69704, now the level that needs to hold, and R1 at 0.69959. A push through R1 at 0.69959 would open the way toward further gains, while a drop back below the pivot at 0.69704 would risk a retest of S1 at 0.69552 - a split picture given the pair's daily trend is down even as the four-hour trend is mixed and the RSI sits near the midpoint at 42.

Bitcoin holds above its pivot at $82,774.30, trading between there and R1 at $84,625.73, with the daily trend up and the RSI at 53.2. A close above R1 at $84,625.73 would extend the five-day advance of 2.07%, while a retreat below the pivot at $82,774.30 would open the way back toward S1 at $81,486.39.

Newsflow Themes

Overnight coverage centered heavily on gold, with FX Street and FXEmpire debating the chart structure of its pullback and possible reversal zones, alongside separate FX Street pieces on gold's broader role via Hong Kong's standing as a trading hub and India's proposed digital-gold rules. Elsewhere, Forex.com flagged a tightening range in AUD/USD ahead of the inflation data and a possible turn higher for GBP/USD against the Canadian dollar, while FX Street also noted resistance tests building in GBP/JPY.

Calendar Ahead

The Asian and European calendar is heavy with central bank speakers before the main event. ECB President Lagarde speaks twice, at 02:10 UTC and again at 08:30 UTC, both flagged High impact, with Elderson at 08:00 UTC and Escriva at 09:20 UTC filling in between. BoE's Pill speaks at 06:00 UTC and BoC Governor Macklem at 06:05 UTC. Spain's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) lands at 07:00 UTC, with the estimate matching the previous reading at 5%. Fed's Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC.

The session's main focus is the 12:30 UTC US Consumer Price Index batch: the YoY estimate is 3.6% against a previous 3.4%, the MoM estimate is 0.6% against a previous 0.4%, and the core (ex food & energy) readings are estimated at 2.5% YoY versus 2.4% previously and 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% previously. Those watching the release against prior context can review how it fits the broader schedule using the economic calendar guide.

Bottom Line

With gold flat, the dollar mixed against the majors and USD/CAD the only instrument lower on the day, the session offers no single-direction read; EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY all show trend disagreement between daily and four-hour readings. The currency strength meter can help track how that balance shifts once London opens at 07:00 UTC and through the run-up to the CPI print.