What is the USD/CAD forecast today ahead of US CPI?

USD/CAD trades at 1.42086, between support at the previous day low of 1.42029 and resistance at the daily pivot of 1.42331. The daily trend is up while the H4 and H1 trends are mixed to down, so the near-term outlook is neutral heading into the 12:30 UTC CPI data.

How could today's US CPI release affect USD/CAD?

US CPI is due at 12:30 UTC, with headline inflation estimated at 3.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month versus previous readings of 3.4% and 0.4%, and core CPI estimated at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month versus 2.4% and 0.3% previously. The release is high-impact and scheduled, though its exact effect on USD/CAD cannot be predicted in advance.

What technical levels are in focus for USD/CAD today?

The nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.42331, 24.5 pips above spot, and the nearest support is the previous day low at 1.42029, just 5.7 pips below. Beyond those, R1 sits at 1.42633 and S1 at 1.41839.

Is USD/CAD in an uptrend or a downtrend right now?

The daily chart is in an uptrend, with price above its 20-, 50- and 200-day EMAs and a 14-day RSI of 60.8. However, the H4 trend is mixed and the H1 trend is down, so the shorter-term picture does not confirm the daily trend.

USD/CAD Forecast Today: Price Stalls Below Pivot Pre-CPI

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 14, 2026, 07:14 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD is consolidating between the previous day low at 1.42029 and the daily pivot at 1.42331, with daily, H4 and H1 trends split ahead of today's 12:30 UTC US CPI release.

Price1.42086

Day change-0.04%

Day range1.41957 - 1.42201

ATR (14)0.00618

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.43427	S1	1.41839
R2	1.43125	S2	1.41537
R1	1.42633	S3	1.41045
Previous day high	1.42823	Previous day low	1.42029
20-day high	1.42973	20-day low	1.39071
Daily pivot 1.42331. Data as of 2026-10-14 07:11 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.42331, R1 1.42633, R2 1.43125, S1 1.41839, S2 1.41537 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/CAD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-14 07:11 UTC.

USD/CAD Holds Below The Pivot In London Trade

In London trade, USD/CAD is quoted at 1.42086, down 0.04% on the day from the previous close of 1.42141. The pair opened at 1.42122 and has moved between a day high of 1.42201 and a day low of 1.41957, a range of 24.4 pips that covers about 39% of the 14-day Average True Range of 61.8 pips, a narrow session by recent standards.

Trend And Momentum: Timeframes Disagree

The daily chart remains in an uptrend, with price above its 20-day EMA at 1.41567, its 50-day EMA at 1.4059 and its 200-day EMA at 1.3915, and the 14-day RSI at 60.8 still pointing to firm underlying momentum. The H4 trend is mixed, with price sitting close to both its 20-period EMA at 1.42386 and its 50-period EMA at 1.42316, while the H1 trend points down, with price below its 20-period EMA at 1.42155 and its 50-period EMA at 1.42331.

That leaves the picture split: the daily trend argues for continuation higher while the shorter H4 and H1 structures lean sideways to lower. Over five days USD/CAD is up 0.02%, and the 20-day change stands at 2.13%, so the broader advance is intact even as the pair stalls this week.

Levels That Matter

Price sits between S1 at 1.41839 and the daily pivot at 1.42331. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot, 24.5 pips away, while the nearest support is the previous day low at 1.42029, just 5.7 pips below current price. The full pivot suite runs from R3 at 1.43427 and R2 at 1.43125 down through R1 at 1.42633, the pivot at 1.42331, S1 at 1.41839, S2 at 1.41537 and S3 at 1.41045; the pivot point calculator breaks down how each of these is derived.

Yesterday's session (October 13) ran from a high of 1.42823 to a low of 1.42029, a range of 79.4 pips, before closing at 1.42141. The 5-day range spans a high of 1.42973 to a low of 1.42029, while the wider 20-day range spans a high of 1.42973 to a low of 1.39071. The round number at 1.42 sits just beneath spot, with 1.425 the next psychological level overhead.

Bullish And Bearish Scenarios

A sustained break above R1 at 1.42633 would open the way toward R2 at 1.43125, a move of 49.2 pips from trigger to target; a slide back below the daily pivot at 1.42331 would invalidate that path. On the other side, a drop through S1 at 1.41839 would expose S2 at 1.41537, 30.2 pips lower, while a recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.42331 would undercut that bearish case. The risk and reward calculator can help frame either scenario against a chosen entry.

What Could Move USD/CAD Today

Fed Governor Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC, ahead of the day's focal point: US CPI data at 12:30 UTC. Headline CPI is estimated at 3.6% year-on-year against a previous 3.4%, and at 0.6% month-on-month against a previous 0.4%; core CPI is estimated at 2.5% year-on-year against a previous 2.4%, and at 0.2% month-on-month against a previous 0.3%. Bowman speaks again at 14:55 UTC, with the Fed's Beige Book and the Monthly Budget Statement (previous -166.8, estimate -29) both due at 18:00 UTC. The economic calendar guide explains how to track releases like these through the session. Tomorrow brings the IMF Meeting, Retail Sales Control Group data (previous 1.4%), PPI figures (MoM previous 0.4% versus an estimate of 0.5%; YoY previous 5.4% versus an estimate of 5.3%), Initial Jobless Claims (previous 197, estimate 200) and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (previous 7.6, estimate 10.3).

Coverage from FX Street and Forex.com is centered on the pair's pause just above the 1.42 handle heading into the CPI print, while FXEmpire frames the move as part of a broader dollar pullback from recent highs.

In the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week to October 6, 2026, large speculators were net long USD/CAD, and the latest weekly update showed them adding to that net long position. US Treasury yields eased into the October 13, 2026 close, with the 2-year at 4.79%, down 1 basis point, and the 10-year at 5.21%, down 3 basis points, each measured against October 9.

News coverage volume on USD/CAD is running at 86% of its 90-day average, and the separate opportunity read, a media-mood score, stands at -55, a bearish reading. That follows a swing from a bullish 53 to a bearish -65 within the past 24 hours, underscoring how quickly the mood around the pair has shifted.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD is wedged between the previous day low at 1.42029 and the daily pivot at 1.42331, with the daily uptrend intact but the H4 and H1 structures pointing sideways to lower, keeping the near-term read neutral into the CPI data. A break above R1 at 1.42633 would put R2 at 1.43125 in view, while a break below S1 at 1.41839 would open the way to S2 at 1.41537. Either path hinges on how the 12:30 UTC inflation data lands against the estimates above.