USD/CAD Forecast Today: Range Holds Near Daily Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 13, 2026, 07:33 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD is consolidating between S1 at 1.42502 and the daily pivot at 1.42683 in a quiet London session, with Fed's Waller speaking shortly and US CPI due tomorrow.

USD/CAD Holds Inside Its Range in the London Session

USD/CAD trades at 1.42603, down 0.13% from the previous close at 1.42793, sitting between S1 at 1.42502 and the daily pivot at 1.42683 during London hours. Today's range so far spans the day high at 1.42823 and day low at 1.42589, a move of 23.4 pips that covers just 39% of the 14-day ATR of 60.5 pips, pointing to a subdued session ahead of New York joining at 12:00 UTC.

Trend Signals Split Across Timeframes

The daily trend is up, with price above the 200-day EMA at 1.3913, the 50-day EMA at 1.40527 and the 20-day EMA at 1.41507. The four-hour trend also reads up, with price above its 20-period EMA at 1.42578 and 50-period EMA at 1.42358. The one-hour trend is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 1.42686 sitting just above the 50-period EMA at 1.42625, a split that keeps the near-term picture balanced even as the higher timeframes point higher. The daily RSI(14) reads 70.8, in the upper part of its range after a 2.59% gain over the past 20 days and a 0.02% gain over the past 5.

Levels That Matter: Pivots, Prior Range and Round Numbers

Price sits between the daily pivot at 1.42683, the nearest resistance 8 pips above, and S1 at 1.42502, the nearest support 10.1 pips below. Beyond the pivot, R1 stands at 1.42975, R2 at 1.43156 and R3 at 1.43448; below S1, S2 sits at 1.4221 and S3 at 1.42029. Yesterday's bar, dated October 12, ran from a low of 1.42392 to a high of 1.42865 across a 47.3-pip range. The 5-day range runs from 1.4203 to 1.42973, and the 20-day range runs from 1.38959 to 1.42973, sharing the same high as the 5-day window. Round numbers sit close by too, with 1.425 just below current price and 1.43 overhead; the pivot grid behind these levels can be checked with the pivot point calculator, and the mechanics are covered in the guide to how pivot points work.

Bullish and Bearish Paths From Here

A break above R1 at 1.42975 would open the way to R2 at 1.43156; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.42683 would invalidate that path. On the other side, a break below S1 at 1.42502 would open the way to S2 at 1.4221, with a move back above the daily pivot at 1.42683 invalidating that case. Either path can be sized against account risk with the risk and reward calculator, and the day's modest range relative to ATR is worth weighing with the guide to ATR and volatility before either trigger is reached.

What's on the Calendar

Fed's Waller is due to speak today at 07:45 UTC, a medium-impact event. The ADP Employment Change four-week average follows at 12:15 UTC (previous 23.75), Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) lands at 14:00 UTC (previous -2%), and the Monthly Budget Statement is due at 18:00 UTC (previous -166.8, estimate -28). Tomorrow brings the IMF Meeting at 00:00 UTC, a high-impact speech from BoC Governor Macklem at 06:05 UTC, Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC, and US CPI at 12:30 UTC, where the year-on-year estimate is 3.7% against a previous 3.4% and the month-on-month estimate is 0.6% against a previous 0.4%; core CPI is estimated at 0.2% month-on-month (previous 0.3%) and 2.5% year-on-year (previous 2.4%). The guide to using an economic calendar explains how to weigh release timing against these estimates.

Newsflow touches a broader dollar-strength narrative playing out across major pairs alongside commentary describing USD/CAD's own price action as subdued and possibly overextended after its recent run, as reported by FXEmpire, FX Street and Forex.com. News volume sits at 77% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read, a separate measure of coverage tone rather than a price forecast, stands at 27, a bullish reading, after moving from -15 to 53 over the prior 24 hours.

CFTC data as of the week to October 6, 2026 show speculators net long USD/CAD in pair terms, with speculators adding to that net long position from the prior week. In Treasury markets, yields closed on October 9, 2026 with the 2-year at 4.8%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points, against a 2s10s curve of 44 basis points.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD is consolidating inside a narrow slice of its average daily range, pinned between S1 at 1.42502 and the daily pivot at 1.42683 while the daily and four-hour trends stay up but the one-hour trend is mixed. With Fed's Waller speaking shortly and CPI due tomorrow, the levels on either side of the current range outline the paths worth tracking into the New York handover; full charts and pivots are available on the live USD/CAD rate and chart page, alongside further USD/CAD analysis.