USD/CAD Forecast Today: Uptrend Holds Above Pivot

Daily outlook Bullish bias Oct 8, 2026, 07:05 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD holds between the daily pivot at 1.42457 and R1 at 1.42885, with the daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing higher. A break above R1 opens the way to R2 at 1.43226, while a slip below the pivot favors a test of S1 at 1.42116, ahead of tomorrow's Canadian jobs report.

Market Overview: USD/CAD Holds Above the Pivot

USD/CAD trades at 1.42617 during the London session, up 0.05% on the day after adding 0.00074 from the previous close at 1.42543. The day has ranged between a low of 1.42392 and a high of 1.42694, a spread of 30.2 pips that covers only 51% of the 14-day ATR of 59 pips, a narrower move than the recent average (the mechanics of that volatility read are covered in our ATR guide). Price sits between the daily pivot at 1.42457 and R1 at 1.42885, with the full grid visible on the live USD/CAD rate page.

Trend and Momentum: Three Timeframes, One Direction

The daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all point the same way. The daily chart holds an uptrend with price above its 20-day EMA at 1.41143, its 50-day EMA at 1.40271 and its 200-day EMA at 1.39065. The four-hour trend is also up, with price above a 20-period EMA at 1.42448 and a 50-period EMA at 1.42129, and the one-hour trend agrees, sitting above a 20-EMA at 1.42549 and a 50-EMA at 1.42475.

The 14-day RSI on the daily chart stands at 71.8, reflecting the strength of the recent advance. Over five days the pair is up 0.22%, and over 20 days it is up 3.32%. With all three timeframes aligned higher, the technical evidence leans in one direction rather than conflicting.

Levels That Matter: Pivot, Range and Round Numbers

The nearest resistance is the previous day's high at 1.42799, 18.2 pips above the current level, while the nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.42457, 16 pips below. Beyond that, pivot resistance stacks up at R2 1.43226 and R3 1.43654, with pivot support at S1 1.42116, S2 1.41688 and S3 1.41347 — the full set is laid out on the pivot point calculator.

Yesterday's session, October 7, opened at 1.42054 and closed at 1.42543, with a high of 1.42799 and a low of 1.4203 producing a range of 76.9 pips. Over the past five days the range runs from a low of 1.42012 to a high of 1.42928. Over the past 20 days the range runs from a low of 1.37933 to a high of 1.42928, sharing the same ceiling as the five-day window. Round-number levels sit close by too, with 1.425 just below spot and 1.43 just above.

Trading Scenarios: Two Paths From Here

A break above R1 at 1.42885 would open the way toward R2 at 1.43226; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.42457 would invalidate that bullish case. On the other side, a break below S1 at 1.42116 would expose S2 at 1.41688 as the next downside level, while a recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.42457 would undercut the bearish setup. Either path can be sized against a plan with the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move USD/CAD Today

The US calendar is dominated by Fed voices and a labor-market data point. Fed Governor Waller speaks at 08:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims print at 12:30 UTC against a previous reading of 197 and an estimate of 200, and Fed's Musalem speaks again at 17:40 UTC. Canada's turn comes tomorrow, October 9, when Average Hourly Wages (YoY) (previous 2), the Unemployment Rate (previous 6.4, estimate 6.5) and Net Change in Employment (previous -41.7, estimate 7) all release at 12:30 UTC — a rundown of how to read releases like these is available in our economic calendar guide.

Newsflow around the pair has centered on broader dollar strength tied to a global bond sell-off and on whether the Canadian dollar's recent bounce can hold, with FXEmpire, Forex.com and ExchangeRates all weighing whether the dollar's advance is pausing or resuming.

Weekly CFTC data, as of the week to September 29, show large speculators net long USD/CAD, having added to that net long over the week. In the underlying Canadian dollar futures, speculators held 65.8% of contracts short against 34.2% long, for a net position of -78,671 contracts versus -53,210 the prior week.

US Treasury yields at the close on October 7 showed the 2-year yield at 4.77%, down 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.28%, up 1 basis point, with the 2s10s curve at 51 basis points.

News sentiment on USD/CAD leans bullish, with coverage running 79% bullish versus 21% bearish and media mood at 100 out of 100, up from 80 the previous day. The opportunity read, a separate measure, stands at 44 with a bullish reading.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD sits between the daily pivot at 1.42457 and R1 at 1.42885, with the daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all pointing higher and the 14-day RSI at 71.8. A clear break above R1 would open the path to R2 at 1.43226, while a slip back through the daily pivot would turn focus toward S1 at 1.42116 and S2 at 1.41688. Today's US calendar carries Fed speakers and jobless claims data, with Canada's employment report scheduled for tomorrow, October 9.