AUD/USD Forecast Today: Mixed Signals in Asia Session

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 22, 2026, 06:55 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades between support at 0.69978 and resistance at 0.70164 with conflicting timeframe signals. Today's session brings US Initial Jobless Claims and Australian PMI releases into focus.

Current Price Action and Session Range

The Australian Dollar vs US Dollar currently trades at 0.70141 during the Asia session, positioned between S1 at 0.69978 and the daily pivot at 0.70164. Price is down 0.00122, or 0.17%, from the previous close. Today's trading has recorded a day low of 0.70064 and a day high of 0.70353. This intraday movement measures 28.9 pips, taking up 59% of the 14-day Average True Range of 48.9 pips. Market attention now shifts toward the European morning, as London opens at 07:00 UTC.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

Technical momentum presents a neutral picture, as signals across the analyzed timeframes currently disagree. The 4-hour chart displays an upward trend, but the daily and 1-hour windows maintain a mixed state. On the daily timeframe, price remains above the 200-period exponential moving average of 0.6979. The 14-day Relative Strength Index on the daily chart sits near the midpoint at 53.

Risks and Key Levels to Watch

Looking at nearby levels, the closest resistance is the daily pivot at 0.70164, located just 2.3 pips above the current price. The nearest support is S1 at 0.69978, sitting 16.3 pips below. The previous day's action saw a high of 0.70351 and a low of 0.69879, finishing with yesterday's close at 0.70263. Stepping back, the 5-day window spans from a low of 0.68932 to a high of 0.70351. The 20-day window shares the same low at 0.68932 but extends to a higher peak at 0.70441. Traders also observe round numbers below price at 0.7 and above at 0.705.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

If upward momentum builds, a break above R1 at 0.7045 would open the way to R2 at 0.70636. A move back below the daily pivot at 0.70164 would invalidate this view. In a bearish scenario, a break below S1 at 0.69978 would open the way to S2 at 0.69692. A move back above the daily pivot at 0.70164 would invalidate it.

Bullish Reversal Themes and Positioning

Recent financial news coverage explores a potential bullish reversal. Within this newsflow, Action Forex highlights reported Reserve Bank of Australia policy risks, while Forexcom discusses US Dollar weakness. The independent news sentiment opportunity reading registers as bullish with a score of 32, measured on news volume running at 218% of the 90-day average. In the futures market, large speculators added to their net short AUD/USD holdings as of the week to October 13. As broader context from the US Treasury market at the October 21 close, the 2-year yield settled at 4.81%, up 2 basis points, while the 10-year yield rose 1 basis point to 5.13%.

Key Economic Calendar Events Today

Today's economic calendar features data releases from both the United States and Australia. At 12:30 UTC, the US publishes Initial Jobless Claims, which carries an estimate of 200 following a previous print of 199. Later, at 22:00 UTC, Australia releases its S&P Global Services PMI, which previously stood at 51.9. Australian S&P Global Composite PMI and Manufacturing PMI figures come out at the same time, following previous readings of 51.3 and 49.6 respectively.

Summary Outlook

AUD/USD enters the final stretch of the Asia session trading between S1 at 0.69978 and the daily pivot at 0.70164, carrying a neutral technical bias across the short-term and daily timeframes. The scheduled release of US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Australian PMI figures at 22:00 UTC represent the primary data points on today's calendar. A breakout above R1 at 0.7045 or below S1 at 0.69978 would activate the respective directional scenarios.