Asia Session Forex: Dollar Holds Firm Before ECB Accounts

Session brief Bullish bias Oct 8, 2026, 00:35 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

Asia session trade is quiet but dollar-firm: gold and ether lead losses, USD/JPY holds just above support near its 200-day SMA, and the ECB accounts plus US jobless claims are the next scheduled tests.

Market Overview: A Quiet Asia Session After Hawkish Fed Minutes

Price action is holding inside tight ranges in the early Asia session, with WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) the session's leader at 88.455, up 0.14% on the day, while Ethereum (ETH/USD) is the clear laggard at 2571.65, down 4.66%. Among the FX majors, USD/CAD is the firmest at 1.42616, up 0.05%, and EUR/USD is marginally higher at 1.11979, up 0.02%, while GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and gold are all fractionally softer. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) sits unchanged at 31148.7, and Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is down 0.21% at 83194.91. For a broader read on how the dollar stacks up against other majors right now, the currency strength meter offers a live comparison.

Instrument Snapshot

USD/JPY Holds Just Above Support Near Its 200-Day Mark

USD/JPY trades at 157.791, down 0.17% on the day, sitting between the S1 support at 157.761 and the daily pivot at 158.126, with both the daily and four-hour trend reading mixed. Forexcom's latest yen outlook notes the pair meeting its 200-day simple moving average, a technical zone that lines up with the current squeeze between support and the pivot. A reclaim of the pivot at 158.126 would open the way toward R1 at 158.419, a move that a slip back under the S1 at 157.761 would undo. Conversely, a clean break of the S1 at 157.761 would expose the pair to further losses, something a recovery back above the 158.126 pivot would invalidate. The pivot point calculator can help map these levels against the pair's own daily range.

Gold Holds Below Its Pivot as the Dollar Stays Firm

Gold (XAU/USD) is changing hands at 4106.67, down 0.10% on the day and down 1.21% over the past five sessions, with both the daily and four-hour trend pointing lower and the 14-day RSI at 36.8. Price sits between the S1 support at 4054.95 and the daily pivot at 4112.39, after a day range between 4103.28 and 4116.04. FX Street and Forexcom both describe the metal as under pressure following the Fed's minutes, framing the move as consistent with a firmer dollar tone rather than a standalone gold story. A break of the S1 at 4054.95 would open the way toward additional downside, a move that a recovery back above the 4112.39 pivot would invalidate; reclaiming the pivot, on the other hand, would put the R1 at 4158.43 in view.

Ethereum Leads Losses as Risk Appetite Cools

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is the session's standout mover, down 4.66% at 2571.65 after a day range between 2544.19 and 2698.37, with the daily trend mixed but the four-hour trend down and the 14-day RSI at 45.5. The five-day change stands at -3.62%, and price now sits between the S1 support at 2513.09 and the daily pivot at 2605.73. A break below the S1 at 2513.09 would open the door to further downside, something a reclaim of the 2605.73 pivot would invalidate; a recovery through the pivot would instead shift focus to the R1 at 2667.27. Given the scale of the move, the ATR and volatility guide is a useful reference for sizing up how wide normal swings have become.

Newsflow: Fed Minutes and Bond Yields Dominate the Narrative

The running theme across coverage from FX Street and Forexcom is the hawkish read on the Fed's minutes, which may be feeding into the firmer dollar tone weighing on gold and several major pairs, alongside separate reporting on a selloff in government bonds that has coincided with softness in sterling. Technical notes from Forexcom also flag potential breakout setups developing across yen and Australian dollar crosses heading into the next sessions.

Treasury yields add context to that backdrop: the 10-year closed at 5.28% on October 7, up 1 basis point versus the prior session, while the 2-year eased 2 basis points to 4.77%, leaving the 2s10s curve at 51 basis points.

Calendar Ahead: ECB Accounts and US Jobless Claims

The economic calendar is busy through the rest of the day. Germany's trade balance lands at 06:00 UTC, with an estimate of 19 against a previous reading of 21.3, followed by the Eurogroup meeting at 08:00 UTC. Fed's Waller speaks at 08:30 UTC and BoE's Greene at 09:15 UTC, ahead of ECB's Lane at 10:00 UTC and the high-impact ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC. US Initial Jobless Claims follow at 12:30 UTC, with an estimate of 200 against a previous 197, and BoE's Lombardelli rounds out the day at 13:00 UTC. London opens at 07:00 UTC, well ahead of most of this slate. For a primer on how to weigh these releases, see the guide to using an economic calendar.

Bottom Line

With London still hours away, the Asia session is holding a narrow, mixed-trend tape: the dollar looks firmer against most majors, gold and ether are the weakest performers, and USD/JPY is pinned near support just under its pivot. The scheduled ECB accounts and US jobless claims later today are the next scheduled tests of these levels, and how price settles afterward remains an open question.