Forex News Today: USD/JPY Eyes 157.817 as Gold Slides

Session brief Bullish bias Oct 1, 2026, 02:34 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY targets intraday resistance near 157.817 while gold stays pressured below its pivot at 4174.13, as the dollar firms broadly during the Asia session.

Asia Session Overview: USD/JPY Gains Ground While Gold Softens

During the Asia session, WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) leads the gainers with an increase of 0.27%, while USD/JPY also shows upward momentum, rising 0.23% to trade at 157.743. In contrast, Gold (XAU/USD) is the session's primary laggard, slipping 0.35% to 4142.11. Major currency pairs show smaller moves, with EUR/USD up 0.04% and both AUD/USD and GBP/USD up 0.02% on the day. Traders can use a live currency strength meter to monitor the relative performance of these majors in real-time.

USD/JPY Recovers to Challenge Key Moving Average Resistance

USD/JPY is trading at 157.743, within a day range bounded by a high of 157.756 and a low of 157.305. The four-hour trend points higher even though the daily trend is still rated mixed, leaving the pair hovering just under its own R1 at 157.817. A moving-average hurdle near 158.00, highlighted in recent FX Street coverage, lines up with where the advance has lost momentum.

A sustained break above R1 at 157.817 would open the way toward that 158.00 area. Conversely, a drop back below the daily pivot at 157.087 would invalidate the immediate bullish bias and expose support at S1 156.657. The pair's 14-day average true range stands at 128.2 pips, and traders can consult our guide on the ATR indicator to manage volatility expectations.

Gold Stays Soft Near 4142 With Treasury Yields Elevated

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading down 0.35% at 4142.11, hovering near its daily low of 4141.22 and well below the day high of 4162.04. Over the last 5 days, the precious metal has lost 3.39% of its value, with both the daily and H4 trends pointing downward. For context, US Treasury yields at the close of September 30, 2026, showed the 10-year yield finishing at 5.29% (up 3 basis points) and the 2-year yield at 4.88% (down 1 basis point).

Recent FX Street and FXEmpire coverage has pointed to firmer bond yields and higher oil prices as a possible drag on bullion even as inflation data cooled, though that remains one interpretation rather than a confirmed driver of today's move. A break below S1 support at 4129.05 would reinforce the existing daily downtrend, while a recovery back above the pivot at 4174.13 would be needed to shift the intraday bias toward R1 resistance at 4200.86.

Australian Dollar Braces for Impact from Trade Balance Data

AUD/USD is trading flat at 0.69435 ahead of key domestic data, remaining between a day high of 0.69471 and a day low of 0.69375. The pair's daily and H4 trends are both downward, and its 5-day change is -1.33%. Scheduled today at 01:30 UTC, Australia will release its Trade Balance (MoM), which previously stood at 1923, alongside medium-impact Imports and Exports data and a Financial Stability Review, all due at the same time. Traders can track these upcoming releases on our economic calendar.

If the data triggers a renewed sell-off, a break below S1 support at 0.69244 would signal further bearish continuation. Alternatively, if buyers return, a move above the daily pivot at 0.69591 could target resistance at R1 0.69769, opening the way for a broader recovery. Readers mapping out either scenario can size positions with the position size calculator.

Key Macro Catalysts and Technical Levels to Watch Next

Beyond the Australian trade figures, several European manufacturing PMI updates are scheduled today, including Spain's Manufacturing PMI at 07:15 UTC (expected at 50.2 vs 49.5 previous), Italy's at 07:45 UTC (expected at 49.9 vs 49.6 previous), and Germany's at 07:55 UTC (expected at 53.8 vs 53.8 previous). Later today, the US session features Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, with estimates pointing to 200 versus a previous 197. Speeches from European Central Bank President Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and Bank of England's Mann at 12:00 UTC are also on today's calendar, alongside ECB speakers Cipollone, Nagel and Villeroy. The pivot points guide and pivot point calculator can help frame how these releases interact with today's levels.

Bottom Line

The broader setup leans toward dollar strength: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are all in daily downtrends against the dollar, while USD/CAD sits in a daily uptrend. USD/JPY's daily trend is still rated mixed even as its four-hour trend points higher, but with four of five dollar pairs aligned in the same direction, the lean for the dollar into the next session's data and speeches is bullish rather than neutral.