WTI Crude Oil Forecast Today: Rally Clears $91 Toward R3

Daily outlook Bullish bias Oct 8, 2026, 12:34 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI Crude Oil is up 3.91% to 91.784, trading between R2 at 91.539 and R3 at 92.797, with daily and H1 trends higher while H4 stays mixed.

Crude Rallies Through the London-New York Overlap

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) trades at 91.784, up 3.455 dollars, or 3.91%, on the day during the London and New York overlap. The session opened at 88.383 and has ranged between a high of 92.043 and a low of 88.123, versus a previous close of 88.329.

Today's range of 3.92 dollars already covers about 99% of the 14-day Average True Range of 3.95 dollars, a sign the session has produced close to a full ATR's worth of movement on the live XTI/USD rate with New York hours still to run before London closes at 16:00 UTC.

Trend and Momentum: Daily and H1 Point Up, H4 Lags

The daily chart is trending up, with price above its 20-day EMA at 90.719, 50-day EMA at 88.634 and 200-day EMA at 80.09. The H1 chart agrees, trading above its 20-period EMA at 90.13 and 50-period EMA at 89.465.

The H4 picture is mixed: its 20-period EMA at 89.6 sits below the 50-period EMA at 90.03, a setup that has not caught up with today's jump. The daily RSI reads 46, below the 50 midpoint and short of overbought territory, so momentum has not stretched into extreme territory even after the surge.

Over five days, price is up 2.63%; over twenty days it remains down 2.69%, underlining that today's advance is recovering ground lost earlier in the month rather than extending an already-stretched trend.

Levels That Matter: Resistance, Support and the Pivot Ladder

Price sits between R2 at 91.539 and R3 at 92.797 on the daily pivot ladder, the kind built with a pivot point calculator. The nearest resistance is the 5-day high at 92.675, just 0.89 dollars above the last price, while the nearest support is R2 at 91.539, only 0.25 dollars below it.

The full ladder runs from the daily pivot at 88.676 up through R1 at 89.934, R2 at 91.539 and R3 at 92.797, and down through S1 at 87.071, S2 at 85.813 and S3 at 84.208. Yesterday's session, October 7, opened at 89.124 and closed at 88.329, with a high of 90.281 and a low of 87.418, both already cleared or held by today's range.

Looking further out, the 5-day window spans a high of 92.675 and a low of 86.296, while the 20-day window spans a much wider high of 102.135 and low of 86.296. Price is also working through round-number territory, with 91.5 below and 92 above the last traded price.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A sustained push through R3 at 92.797 would open the way toward the next round number at 93; that bullish case would be undermined by a slide back below the daily pivot at 88.676.

On the other side, a slip back through S1 at 87.071 would expose S2 at 85.813 as the next downside marker, a scenario that loses its validity on a recovery back above the daily pivot at 88.676. Either path can be measured against its own stop and target using a risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move Oil Today

Two Federal Reserve speakers are on today's docket: Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC, both flagged medium-impact. Tomorrow brings a cluster of University of Michigan releases at 14:00 UTC, including the Consumer Sentiment Index (previous 48.1, estimate 47.6, high impact), the Consumer Expectations Index (previous 46.3) and both inflation-expectation gauges (previous 3.4% for the five-year measure, 4.6% for the one-year), plus the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count tomorrow at 17:00 UTC (previous 456), a release specific to crude supply. Reading an economic calendar alongside the pivot ladder can help frame how these releases sit against current levels.

Newsflow today centers on Middle East security risk, with Bloomberg Markets and Finance reporting on attacks near Riyadh and Abha and on a tanker incident, and on Gulf of Mexico supply disruption flagged by WSJ ahead of a storm; both threads may be feeding a risk premium behind today's move. Seeking Alpha and Fox Business, meanwhile, raise the other side of the debate, questioning how durable current pricing is and pointing to downside risk should Middle East tensions ease.

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, for the week to September 29, showed large speculators net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), with longs at 58.9% of positions against 41.1% short. Versus the prior week, speculators reduced net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), trimming the net position by 31,643 contracts to 109,463.

US Treasury yields as of October 7 showed the 2-year at 4.77%, down 2 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.28%, up 1 basis point, putting the 2s10s curve at 51 basis points, context for broader risk appetite rather than a direct driver of oil. News sentiment is running strongly bullish, with 69% of coverage tone positive against 31% bearish and media mood at 100 out of 100, up from 97 the previous day, while the separate opportunity read stands at 60 with a bullish label; none of these readings forecast where price goes next.

Bottom Line

WTI Crude Oil has broken decisively higher, trading between R2 at 91.539 and R3 at 92.797 with daily and H1 trends both pointing up even as the H4 picture and a neutral RSI at 46 keep the move from looking stretched. A clear break of R3 at 92.797 would put the 93 round number in view, while a reversal back under the daily pivot at 88.676 would undercut the bullish case and put S1 at 87.071 back in focus.