GBP/USD Price Move Presses Below 1.32 Toward S2

Market mover Bearish bias Oct 1, 2026, 16:06 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

GBP/USD last at 1.31935, down 0.52% in New York with daily, H4 and H1 trends down. S2 at 1.31763 is the nearest support ahead of today's Fed speeches and tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls.

Sterling trades below 1.32 in New York

GBP/USD last printed 1.31935 in the New York session, down 0.52% from the previous close at 1.32624. Daily, four-hour and hourly trends are all down, and the pair sits below the 20-day EMA at 1.3362 and the 200-day EMA at 1.34176. The level that matters most is S2 at 1.31763.

The live GBP/USD rate shows a day open at 1.32606, a day high at 1.32719 and a day low at 1.31818. That high-to-low span is 90.1 pips, 141 percent of the 14-day ATR of 64.1 pips, and the directional move is one times ATR to the downside. Daily RSI is 34.3. The pair is down 0.32% over five days and down 2.15% over 20 days.

Newsflow, yields and positioning

Coverage has clustered around a firmer dollar and a heavy technical read on sterling, as reported by FXEmpire, Forexcom, FX Street and InvestingCube. That is the conversation around the pair; it may be coloring the tape and does not prove why this print moved.

At the September 30 close, the US 10-year yield was at 5.29%, up 3 basis points, and the 2-year yield was at 4.88%, down 1 basis point. News sentiment is 60% bullish with media mood at 100 out of 100, while the opportunity read is bearish at -33; coverage volume is 84% of the 90-day average.

As of the week to September 22, large speculators were net short GBP/USD and added to that net short.

Levels, scenarios and today's event risk

Nearest resistance is the 5-day low at 1.32013, 7.8 pips overhead. Nearest support is S2 at 1.31763, 17.2 pips below. The round figure at 1.32 sits just above last; 1.315 is the round figure below. The daily pivot is at 1.32648, with S1 at 1.32193, R1 at 1.33078 and R2 at 1.33533. Yesterday's high was 1.33102 and yesterday's low was 1.32217.

The 5-day window has a high at 1.33102 and a low at 1.32013. The 20-day window has a high at 1.35672 and a low at 1.32013.

A break above R1 at 1.33078 would open the way to R2 at 1.33533; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.32648 would invalidate that view. If price instead pushes through S2 at 1.31763, S3 at 1.31308 comes into view, and that case fails if the pair reclaims the daily pivot at 1.32648.

Still in New York, today still has Fed speeches: Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, Bowman at 19:00 UTC, then Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC. Tomorrow brings Nonfarm Payrolls (previous 162, estimate 90), the unemployment rate (previous 4.1, estimate 4.1), average hourly earnings, U6 underemployment, labor force participation and factory orders at 14:00 UTC (previous 0.9, estimate 0.1). The guide to using an economic calendar maps those times; it does not rank which release will move the pair.

Bottom line

Trends agree to the downside and last is already under the 5-day low at 1.32013. With the day's range at 141 percent of ATR, event risk into the Fed speakers and tomorrow's payrolls is large relative to a typical session; a position size calculator maps that range to account risk. A hold above S2 at 1.31763 leaves the next decision for later; a break would put S3 at 1.31308 on the map, while any recovery still has to clear 1.32013 and the daily pivot at 1.32648.