USD/JPY Forecast Today: Below S3 Before Claims

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 22, 2026, 06:51 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY at 157.144 is down 0.61% and below S3 at 157.281, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all down ahead of US jobless claims.

Where USD/JPY Stands in Asia

USD/JPY is below S3 at 157.281, beyond the bottom of the pivot ladder, and the Asia-session evidence leans bearish because the daily, four-hour and hourly trends all read down. Nearest resistance is S3 at 157.281, 13.7 pips above the last price, and nearest support is the 20-day low at 156.356, 78.8 pips below.

The last price is 157.144, a change of -0.972, or -0.61%, versus the previous close at 158.116. The day open is 158.098, the day high is 158.23 and the day low is 157.042. The day range of 118.8 pips is 126 percent of the 14-period ATR at 94.1 pips. The bid is 157.144 and the ask is 157.19, a spread of 4.6 pips, on the live USD/JPY rate and chart. It is 06:45 UTC in the Asia session, and London opens at 07:00 UTC, a session that has not started.

Trend and Momentum

The daily state is down, with the 20-period EMA at 157.92, the 50-period EMA at 158.045 and the 200-period EMA at 157.888, and price below the 200-period EMA. The last price at 157.144 also sits under the daily 20-period EMA and the daily 50-period EMA. The four-hour state is down, with the 20-period EMA at 158.008 and the 50-period EMA at 158.073. The hourly state is down, with the 20-period EMA at 157.872 and the 50-period EMA at 158.023. The timeframes agree.

Daily RSI is 52.8, beside the down states, so direction lines up while that RSI reading is not at an extreme. The five-day change is -0.73%, and the twenty-day change is -0.72%.

Levels Around This Print

Nearest resistance is S3 at 157.281, 13.7 pips above the last price, and nearest support is the 20-day low at 156.356, 78.8 pips below. The daily pivot is at 158.101, R1 at 158.385, R2 at 158.653 and R3 at 158.937, while S1 at 157.833, S2 at 157.549 and S3 at 157.281 all sit above the last price on the pivot-point map.

Yesterday's high is 158.37 and yesterday's low is 157.818, with yesterday's close at 158.116 and a range of 55.2 pips. The five-day high is 158.579 and the five-day low is 157.527. The twenty-day high is 159.015 and the twenty-day low is 156.356. Today's low at 157.042 is beneath the five-day low, and the twenty-day low is still the nearest support. The round number below is 157 and the round number above is 157.5.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Clearing R1 at 158.385 would open the way to R2 at 158.653, a span of 26.8 pips between that trigger and that target. That higher path loses its basis if price moves back below the daily pivot at 158.101. The last price is still below S3, so R1 has not been reached.

On the downside, today's low at 157.042 is the trigger, and a push through it would put the next round number at 157 in view, 4.2 pips past that low. The last price at 157.144 remains above today's low. A later move back above the daily pivot at 158.101 would cancel the lower path. The daily pivot is the invalidation for each path, not the trigger.

What Is Scheduled Today

US initial jobless claims are due today at 12:30 UTC, a medium-impact release, with a previous reading of 199 and an estimate of 200, and no actual is shown yet. Three Japanese CPI releases are also today at 23:30 UTC, each medium impact: national CPI excluding fresh food has a previous reading of 1.7 and an estimate of 2.1, the national consumer price index has a previous reading of 1.9 and no estimate, and national CPI excluding food and energy has a previous reading of 1.9 and no estimate. Claims at 12:30 UTC and the CPI set at 23:30 UTC both come after this 06:45 UTC Asia hour and after the 07:00 UTC London open, as listed on the economic calendar.

FX Street, FXEmpire, Action Forex and Forexcom have technical notes on USD/JPY in the flow, and part of that set describes a softer dollar, which may frame the talk but does not prove why price is lower. News volume is 82% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read is bearish at -72. An alert records that opportunity read moving from -13, neutral, to -47, bearish, in 24 hours, which is news sentiment rather than a forecast.

As of the week to October 13, large speculators were net short USD/JPY. Speculators reduced net short USD/JPY that week, with the net at 50207 contracts versus 62325 the previous week, a change of -12118 contracts.

US Treasury yields at the October 21 close showed the 2-year at 4.81%, up 2 basis points from October 20, and the 10-year at 5.13%, up 1 basis point. The 3-month yield was 4.25%, and the 2s10s curve was 32 basis points, as context from that close, not a proven cause of this Asia print.

Bottom Line

The Asia-session bias on USD/JPY is bearish: the last price at 157.144 shows a change of -0.61% from the previous close and sits below S3 at 157.281, with daily, four-hour and hourly trends down and daily RSI at 52.8. A push through today's low at 157.042 would put 157 in view, while the higher case still needs a clear of R1 at 158.385 before R2 at 158.653 is the objective, and a move back above the daily pivot at 158.101 would cancel the lower path. Nearest support stays the 20-day low at 156.356, 78.8 pips under the last price, with US jobless claims today at 12:30 UTC and Japanese CPI today at 23:30 UTC still ahead.