What is the USD/JPY forecast today?

USD/JPY is trading at 158.193, between S1 at 158.185 and the daily pivot at 158.458, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trend readings all mixed. A move through R1 at 158.859 or through S1 at 158.185 would point toward the next levels in the pivot structure, but no scheduled release has yet confirmed either direction.

Will US CPI data drive USD/JPY higher?

Tomorrow's US CPI report, due at 12:30 UTC, is a high-impact release, with headline CPI estimated at 3.7% year-over-year against a previous 3.4% and core CPI estimated at 2.5% year-over-year against a previous 2.4%. How USD/JPY reacts depends on how the actual figures compare with those estimates, which is not yet known.

Is USD/JPY bullish or bearish ahead of key events?

Trend readings across the daily, four-hour and one-hour charts are all classified as mixed, and price is sitting between S1 at 158.185 and the daily pivot at 158.458, which keeps the near-term picture neutral rather than clearly bullish or bearish.

How will today's Fed speech and tomorrow's CPI affect the pair?

Fed's Waller speaks today at 07:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman speaks tomorrow at 09:40 UTC, ahead of high-impact US CPI data at 12:30 UTC tomorrow. Both are scheduled risk events for USD/JPY, but the direction of any reaction cannot be known ahead of time.

USD/JPY Forecast Today: Pinned Near S1 Ahead of US CPI

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 13, 2026, 06:51 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY is consolidating between S1 at 158.185 and the daily pivot at 158.458, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all reading mixed ahead of tomorrow's high-impact US CPI data.

Price158.193

Day change-0.25%

Day range158.171 - 158.625

ATR (14)1.071

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	159.533	S1	158.185
R2	159.132	S2	157.784
R1	158.859	S3	157.511
Previous day high	158.730	Previous day low	158.056
20-day high	159.015	20-day low	154.189
Daily pivot 158.458. Data as of 2026-10-13 06:46 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/JPY 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 158.458, R1 158.859, R2 159.132, S1 158.185, S2 157.784 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/JPY, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-13 06:46 UTC.

USD/JPY Holds Near 158.19 in the Asia Session

USD/JPY is trading at 158.193 during the Asia session, down 0.394 on the day, or 0.25%, against the previous close at 158.587. The session has carved out a range between a day high of 158.625 and a day low of 158.171, 45.4 pips in all, or about 42% of the 14-day average true range of 107.1 pips. With London due at 07:00 UTC, the larger share of the day's volatility may still be ahead.

Trend and Momentum: Daily, H4 and H1 All Mixed

All three trend windows tracked for this pair are reading mixed. On the daily chart, price sits above the 200-period EMA at 157.774, while the 20- and 50-period EMAs sit at 157.66 and 158.002. The four-hour chart shows 20- and 50-period EMAs at 158.305 and 158.087, and the one-hour chart shows them at 158.395 and 158.355. The daily RSI(14) reads 58, a neutral reading that does not lean firmly toward either side. With daily, four-hour and one-hour trend states all mixed, momentum is not currently aligned behind a single direction.

Key Levels: Pivots, Prior Range and the 5- and 20-Day Bands

Price sits between S1 at 158.185 and the daily pivot at 158.458, the two nearest reference points. S1 is just 0.8 pips below the last traded price, while the daily pivot sits 26.5 pips above it. The wider pivot structure extends to R1 at 158.859, R2 at 159.132 and R3 at 159.533 above, and S2 at 157.784 and S3 at 157.511 below.

Yesterday's session, October 12, opened at 158.121 and closed at 158.587, with a high of 158.73 and a low of 158.056, a range of 67.4 pips. The five-day window shows a high of 158.73 and a low of 157.502, while the 20-day window shows a high of 159.015 and a low of 154.189. The nearest round levels sit at 158 below and 158.5 above current trade.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for USD/JPY

A sustained push through R1 at 158.859 would open the way toward R2 at 159.132; a retreat back below the daily pivot at 158.458 would call that bullish case into question.

On the downside, a break under S1 at 158.185 would shift focus toward S2 at 157.784; a recovery back above the daily pivot at 158.458 would undercut that bearish path.

What Could Move USD/JPY Today

Today's calendar brings Fed's Waller speech at 07:45 UTC, the ADP Employment Change four-week average at 12:15 UTC (previous 23.75), Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) at 14:00 UTC (previous -2), and the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC (previous -166.8, estimate -28). Tomorrow brings the IMF Meeting, Fed's Bowman speech at 09:40 UTC, and then high-impact US Consumer Price Index data at 12:30 UTC: headline CPI (previous 3.4%, estimate 3.7% year-over-year; previous 0.4%, estimate 0.6% month-over-month) and core CPI (previous 2.4%, estimate 2.5% year-over-year; previous 0.3%, estimate 0.2% month-over-month).

Newsflow on the pair this week has leaned on dollar-strength themes, with FX Street and Forex.com both framing this US CPI week as the likely source of near-term direction, while FXEmpire pointed to the broader dollar testing its highs for the year alongside a rally in oil markets. InvestingCube also flagged lingering intervention speculation and elevated Treasury yields as a factor keeping the pair in check even as some signals point toward a possible breakout.

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to October 6, 2026, showed large speculators net short USD/JPY in futures terms, adding to that net short position from the week before. US Treasury yields at the October 9 close stood at 4.8% on the 2-year, up 5 basis points, and 5.24% on the 10-year, up 2 basis points, putting the 2s10s curve at 44 basis points, context for dollar rate expectations rather than a signal for this pair alone.

News coverage volume on USD/JPY ran at 50% of its 90-day average, with the opportunity read at 11, a neutral score. A separate alert flagged that same opportunity measure swinging from 49, or bullish, to -6, or neutral, within 24 hours.

Bottom Line

USD/JPY is consolidating in a tight pocket between S1 at 158.185 and the daily pivot at 158.458, with trend signals across the daily, four-hour and one-hour charts all mixed and the session range still well short of the 14-day ATR. A clearance of R1 at 158.859 would point the way toward R2 at 159.132, while a break of S1 at 158.185 would point the way toward S2 at 157.784, with the daily pivot at 158.458 marking the line that would call either path into question; even so, tomorrow's CPI releases carry more scheduled weight than anything on today's calendar. For a closer read on how the pivot structure develops through the CPI release, see the USD/JPY analysis page.