How could today's FOMC minutes impact the USD/JPY forecast today?

The high-impact FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC act as the main scheduled risk event today. With price situated between the daily pivot at 158.011 and R1 at 158.273, the release could trigger volatility that tests either boundary.

What are the main resistance zones for USD/JPY right now?

The nearest resistance is R1 at 158.273, located just 1.3 pips from the current price. In a bullish scenario, a break above this level opens the way to the next target at R2, which sits at 158.486.

Is the broader trend for USD/JPY turning bullish?

The broader momentum remains mixed on the daily chart, though the price is holding above the 200-day exponential moving average at 157.748. While the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes exhibit upward trends, the differing signals result in a neutral bias overall.

USD/JPY Forecast Today: Mixed Momentum Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 7, 2026, 06:47 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY exhibits conflicting trend signals across timeframes as short-term momentum pushes price toward resistance at 158.273. Today's high-impact FOMC Minutes will serve as the next major scheduled catalyst.

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Price158.260

Day change+0.13%

Day range158.032 - 158.490

ATR (14)1.192

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	158.748	S1	157.798
R2	158.486	S2	157.536
R1	158.273	S3	157.323
Previous day high	158.224	Previous day low	157.749
20-day high	159.015	20-day low	152.921
Daily pivot 158.011. Data as of 2026-10-07 06:45 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/JPY 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 158.011, R1 158.273, R2 158.486, S1 157.798, S2 157.536 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/JPY, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-07 06:45 UTC.

USD/JPY Consolidates Below Resistance in Asia Session

At 06:45 UTC during the Asia session, USD/JPY is trading at 158.26, reflecting a 0.13% gain from the previous close. The bid is at 158.26 and the ask at 158.306, resulting in a spread of 4.6 pips. So far today, the pair has traded within a high of 158.49 and a low of 158.032. This intraday movement covers 45.8 pips, which accounts for 38% of the 14-day Average True Range of 119.2 pips. Market attention now looks toward the next phase of liquidity, as London opens at 07:00 UTC. In recent performance, the exchange rate is up 0.63% over the past five days and up 2.79% across the 20-day window.

Conflicting Momentum Across Timeframes

Trend signals present a divided picture, leading to a neutral bias overall. On the daily chart, the trend state is mixed. Price remains positioned above the 200-day exponential moving average of 157.748, while the 20-day EMA sits at 157.381 and the 50-day EMA is at 157.966. The daily 14-period Relative Strength Index registers at 54.5. On the 4-hour timeframe, the trend is up, with the 20-period EMA at 158.017 positioned above the 50-period EMA at 157.748. The 1-hour chart also indicates an upward trend, supported by a 20-period EMA of 158.229 and a 50-period EMA of 158.092. Because the daily structure does not align with the intraday charts, directional evidence remains conflicting.

Proximity to Key Pivot Levels

The pair is currently situated between the daily pivot at 158.011 and R1 at 158.273. The nearest resistance is R1 at 158.273, just 1.3 pips above the current price. Immediate support comes from the previous day high at 158.224, located 3.6 pips below the market. Yesterday's price action formed a high of 158.224 and a low of 157.749. The 5-day range is defined by a high of 158.43 and a low of 156.356. Expanding the perspective, the 20-day window spans from a low of 152.921 to a high of 159.015. Significant round levels to note are 158.5 above the current price and 158 below it.

Upside and Downside Breakout Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 158.273 would open the way to R2 at 158.486. A move back below the daily pivot at 158.011 would invalidate this view. Conversely, the bearish scenario outlines that a break below S1 at 157.798 would open the way to S2 at 157.536. This downside path would be invalidated if the price clears back above the daily pivot at 158.011.

Scheduled Risk and Market Context

Today's economic calendar brings high-impact data from the US with the FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC. Later in the session, Japan releases its Current Account n.s.a. at 23:50 UTC, with estimates at 3194.6 compared to a previous 2988. Looking to tomorrow, the schedule features a speech by the Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, which carry an estimate of 200 following a previous reading of 197.

Recent headlines from publishers including FX Street, Action Forex, and FXEmpire focus on the dollar's firmness against technical hurdles and the anticipation of incoming data. The media mood currently measures at 24 out of 100, dropping from 54 the previous day. Despite this, news sentiment maintains a 75% bullish share against a 25% bearish share, yielding an opportunity score of 38, which reads as bullish.

As background context, US Treasury yields recorded on October 6 showed the 2-year yield at 4.79%, down 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.27%, down 4 basis points. In futures markets, weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 29 showed that speculators were net short USD/JPY. Over the same report period, speculators reduced net short USD/JPY.

Bottom Line

With USD/JPY framed closely between immediate support and resistance, the short-term indicators point higher while the daily chart shows mixed momentum. The scheduled release of the FOMC Minutes today will act as a primary focal point, potentially testing R1 at 158.273 or challenging the pivot support at 158.011.