London/New York Overlap Forex Update: Dollar Mixed Into Bailey

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 22, 2026, 12:54 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Oil leads and crypto lags in the London/New York overlap, while the dollar stays mixed and GBP/USD holds between 1.33695 and 1.3386 ahead of Bailey at 13:00 UTC.

Overlap board: oil leads, crypto lags

The London/New York overlap is underway, and next London closes at 16:00 UTC. WTI crude leads, up 1.59% at 98.991, with the daily trend and the four-hour trend both up. Bitcoin lags, down 3.45% at 81671.45, and Ethereum follows, down 2.85% at 2400.95. Among dollar pairs, USD/JPY is down 0.61% while USD/CAD is down 0.06%. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are each down 0.23%, and GBP/USD is down 0.14%.

Gold is down 1.36% at 4084.54, and the Nasdaq 100 is down 1.59% at 29350.7. The dollar is firmer against the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar, and softer against the yen and the Canadian dollar. EUR/USD at 1.12044 is below S1 at 1.12157, with the daily trend down and the four-hour trend mixed. AUD/USD at 0.70101 sits between S1 at 0.69978 and the daily pivot at 0.70164, daily trend mixed and four-hour trend up. USD/CAD at 1.40362 sits between S1 at 1.40282 and the daily pivot at 1.40545, daily trend mixed and four-hour trend down. USD/JPY and gold are down on both timeframes. Those disagreements leave the dollar bias neutral. The live currency strength meter sets those day-changes side by side.

GBP/USD, USD/JPY and WTI levels

GBP/USD into the Bailey speech

GBP/USD is at 1.33726, between S1 at 1.33695 and the daily pivot at 1.3386, with R1 at 1.34084. The day high stands at 1.34183 and the day low at 1.33609. The daily trend is mixed against an up four-hour trend, so the timeframes conflict. Daily RSI is 57.6, the five-day change is up 1.38%, and the 14-day ATR is 73.1 pips. Breaking above the daily pivot at 1.3386 would open the way toward R1 at 1.34084. Slipping back under S1 at 1.33695 would knock out that path and leave the day low at 1.33609 as the marked low beneath. Spacing from S1 at 1.33695 through the daily pivot at 1.3386 to R1 at 1.34084 is the framework in the pivot points guide.

USD/JPY under the pivot ladder

USD/JPY at 157.154 is below S1 at 157.833, beyond the bottom of the pivot ladder. The daily pivot is 158.101 and R1 is 158.385. The day high is 158.23 and the day low is 156.669. Daily and four-hour trends are both down. Daily RSI is 52.8, the five-day change is down 0.72%, and the 14-day ATR is 94.1 pips. A recovery through S1 at 157.833 would put the daily pivot at 158.101 overhead. A slide beneath the day low at 156.669 would leave the pair still outside that ladder instead of back inside it.

WTI firm, gold still under S1

WTI at 98.991 sits between the daily pivot at 97.872 and R1 at 99.659, with S1 at 95.656. The day high is 99.714 and the day low is 97.384. Both trends are up. Daily RSI is 60.9, the five-day change is up 5.25%, and the 14-day ATR is 3.87 dollars. Pushing through R1 at 99.659 would bring the day high at 99.714 into view. A retreat under the daily pivot at 97.872 would scrap that idea, leaving the day low at 97.384 and S1 at 95.656 below.

Gold at 4084.54 is below S1 at 4116.58, with the daily pivot at 4129.29 and R1 at 4153.76. The day high is 4144.42 and the day low is 4057.3. Both trends are down. The five-day change is down 0.5%, daily RSI is 43.7, and the 14-day ATR is 73.14 dollars. Reclaiming S1 at 4116.58 would open a route toward the daily pivot at 4129.29. Losing the day low at 4057.3 would retire that route.

Newsflow, yields and today's calendar

FX Street, Forexcom and InvestingCube are grouped around sterling against the dollar, the Australian dollar, the euro, gold and oil, and the yen. The headlines mark what the coverage is about; they do not prove why any price is where it is.

Treasury yields at the October 21 close are a rate backdrop only: the 2-year yield at 4.81%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.13%, up 1 basis point, with the 2s10s spread at 32 basis points. The 3-month yield stood at 4.25%.

Today's schedule still lies ahead of 12:46 UTC. Governor Bailey speaks at 13:00 UTC, high impact. Eurozone consumer confidence is at 14:00 UTC, medium impact, previous reading -16.5 and estimate -17. At 22:00 UTC, Australia's S&P Global services PMI (previous 51.9), composite PMI (previous 51.3) and manufacturing PMI (previous 49.6) are due, all medium impact, with no estimates shown. UK GfK consumer confidence follows at 23:01 UTC, medium impact, previous -13 and estimate -15. At 23:30 UTC Japan releases national CPI ex food and energy (previous 1.9), national CPI (previous 1.9) and CPI ex fresh food (previous 1.7, estimate 2.1). Those are today's releases, and the economic calendar guide covers the clock around them. Nothing on file shows how this Bailey speech has moved GBP/USD before, so the entry stays a timetable.

Bottom line

The London/New York overlap does not give the dollar one direction. WTI holds the gain and the only paired uptrends on the board, while bitcoin, ethereum, the Nasdaq 100 and gold hold the steep losses. GBP/USD remains between S1 at 1.33695 and the daily pivot at 1.3386, with Bailey at 13:00 UTC and the London close at 16:00 UTC still ahead.