Forex Market Update: London Session Dollar Softens Before CPI

Session brief Bearish bias Oct 16, 2026, 07:34 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

The dollar is on the back foot against most majors in the London session, with gold, sterling and the Aussie leading the gainers ahead of a cluster of Eurozone inflation prints at 09:00 UTC.

The Session So Far

The London session opened with the dollar broadly on the back foot. Ethereum is the standout mover, up 3.97% on the day, while among the forex majors AUD/USD leads with a gain of 0.57%, followed by GBP/USD up 0.34% and EUR/USD up 0.21%. Gold is firmer too, up 0.42%. On the other side, WTI crude is the session's laggard, down 0.36%, with USD/CAD down 0.12% and USD/JPY essentially flat, down 0.04%. Taken together, every major dollar pair tracked here — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD — shows the greenback softer on the day, a consistent read across pairs even though daily trend readings for several of them are listed as down or mixed.

Instruments at a Glance

Setups Worth Watching

EUR/USD sits between the daily pivot at 1.12018 and R1 at 1.12566, with the daily RSI at 37.2 and the daily trend reading down against a mixed four-hour picture. Clearing R1 at 1.12566 would put the pair back above its pivot ladder; slipping back under the pivot at 1.12018 would expose S1 at 1.11634. Those levels, and the pivot framework behind them, can be checked against the pivot point calculator or the background in the pivot points guide.

GBP/USD has already cleared its own ladder, trading above R1 at 1.3307 with the daily pivot at 1.32431 and S1 at 1.3209 both sitting below spot. A pullback that takes the pair back under R1 at 1.3307 would bring the pivot at 1.32431 into focus as the next support, with S1 at 1.3209 further beneath that. The four-hour trend here reads up even as the daily trend is listed as mixed.

Gold trades between its pivot at 4149.24 and R1 at 4198.58, up 0.42% on the day with a daily RSI of 45.5. A push through R1 at 4198.58 would extend the move beyond the current ladder, while a drop back below the pivot at 4149.24 would put S1 at 4121.22 in view. The five-day change for gold stands at 1.33%, broader than its one-day move.

Newsflow Themes

Gold coverage from FXEmpire and FX Street is centered on Fed Governor Warsh's recent comments and what they may imply for the rate-hike path. Euro-focused pieces from FX Street describe range-trading conditions ahead of the inflation data, echoing a similar read from UOB, while ExchangeRates has sterling commentary in the mix and FX Street's yen-cross analysis frames EUR/JPY with a bearish technical bias. None of this newsflow is a confirmed driver of today's price action; it reflects what the wires are discussing as the session runs.

Calendar Ahead

A cluster of Eurozone inflation data lands at 09:00 UTC today: Italy's Consumer Price Index (YoY), estimated at 4.2% against a previous 4.2%; Italy's EU-harmonized CPI (YoY), estimated at 4.1% versus a previous 4.1%; the Eurozone's Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY), estimated at 2.5% against a previous 2.5%; and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM), estimated at 0.6% versus a previous 0.6%. The Eurozone's Core HICP (MoM) is also due at 09:00 UTC with no estimate listed, against a previous reading of 0.2%. Later, US Industrial Production (MoM) is due at 13:15 UTC, estimated at 0.4% against a previous 0.0%, followed by the US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, estimated at -29 against a previous -166.8. New York joins the session at 12:00 UTC. Readers tracking how these prints fit into the day's trading can use the economic calendar guide.

Bottom Line

The dollar is softer against every major pair covered here heading into the Eurozone inflation cluster at 09:00 UTC, with gold, the Aussie and sterling leading the gainers and GBP/USD already trading above its own pivot ladder. EUR/USD and gold remain boxed between their respective pivots and R1 levels, leaving the next directional cue to the data still ahead on the calendar. Position sizing and risk framing around these levels can be checked with the risk and reward calculator.