Forex Market Update: London Session Dollar Picture Turns Mixed

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 12, 2026, 07:48 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

Dollar moves are mixed across majors heading into London trading, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY diverging near their daily pivots while medium-impact BoE and ECB speeches are on tap today.

London Session Snapshot: Where Price Stands

Heading into London, the broader board is mixed rather than directional. Ethereum (ETH/USD) leads the day's percentage movers, up 1.44%, while WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) lags, down 0.37%. Among the majors, EUR/USD is up a slim 0.03%, GBP/USD is up 0.08%, and USD/JPY is up 0.09%, while AUD/USD is down 0.08% and USD/CAD is unchanged on the day. That split -- a firmer dollar against the yen and the Australian dollar, a softer one against the euro and sterling -- keeps today's overall dollar read neutral as New York prepares to join the session at 12:00 UTC.

Today's Central Bank Speeches and Market Impact

The London calendar carries two medium-impact appearances before midday: the BoE's Breeden speaks today at 09:30 UTC and the ECB's Vujčić follows today at 10:00 UTC. A third, the BoE's Mann, is scheduled for today at 12:50 UTC, shortly after New York opens, with the Fed's Hammack rounding out the day today at 16:50 UTC. None of the four carries a previous or estimated reading attached, so the calendar flags timing rather than a numerical outcome to react to.

US Treasury yields, as of the close on October 9, put the 2-year note at 4.80%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 44 basis points -- offered as background to today's mixed dollar tone, not as its cause.

Major Pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY

EUR/USD trades at 1.12045, between S1 at 1.11746 and the daily pivot at 1.12083, with R1 at 1.12299 overhead. Both the daily and four-hour trends point down, the 14-day RSI sits at 28.7, and the pair is down 0.44% over the past five days -- a softer backdrop than the near-flat intraday change alone suggests.

GBP/USD, at 1.3242, holds between the daily pivot at 1.32288 and R1 at 1.32524, with S1 at 1.32083 below. The daily trend is down even as the four-hour trend reads mixed, and the pair is essentially flat over five days, up just 0.01%.

USD/JPY sits at 158.443, between the daily pivot at 158.109 and R1 at 158.534, with S1 at 157.811 underneath. The four-hour trend is up against a mixed daily trend, the 14-day RSI reads 55.4, and its 14-day ATR of 110.6 pips -- the widest among the forex majors covered here, as explained in the ATR guide -- points to a session with more room to travel than EUR/USD or GBP/USD.

Gold, Crypto, and Commodity Moves

Gold (XAU/USD) is at 4185.04, between the daily pivot at 4177.58 and R1 at 4224.27, with S1 at 4147.71 below; the daily trend is down against a mixed four-hour read, though the metal is up 1.11% over five days.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades at 84138.89, between the daily pivot at 83440.67 and R1 at 84183.73, with S1 at 82777.57 beneath. Ethereum (ETH/USD), at 2570.73, has already cleared its pivot ladder, trading above R1 at 2559.07 with the pivot at 2527.15 and S1 at 2502.30 well below -- the clearest directional move on the board today.

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) prints at 90.569, between S1 at 89.763 and the daily pivot at 90.59, with R1 at 91.733 above, while the Nasdaq 100 (US100) at 30953.1 sits between its pivot at 30880.2 and R1 at 31045.2.

Quiet Trading Session Outlook

Three levels stand out for how price is squeezed against them. EUR/USD's 14-day RSI at 28.7 sits closer to oversold territory than any other pair here, with the pair still pinned below its daily pivot at 1.12083; a move back above that pivot would put R1 at 1.12299 in view, while a break of S1 at 1.11746 would extend the five-day decline. USD/CAD, by contrast, carries the highest RSI on the board at 71.2 while trading just under its daily pivot at 1.42573, with R1 at 1.4309 and S1 at 1.42173 bracketing the range; the pivot point calculator shows how each of these daily levels is built from the prior session's range. ETH/USD's push above R1 at 2559.07 leaves the pivot at 2527.15 as the nearest level back toward, should the move fade.

The gap between the dollar's firmer tone against the yen and the Australian dollar and its softer tone against the euro and sterling is the kind of divergence the currency strength meter is built to track. Newsflow from FX Street, ExchangeRates and Orbex this morning centers on two threads: anticipation of this week's US inflation data and its potential to reshape Fed rate expectations, a theme running through both the USD/JPY and GBP/USD coverage, and a split set of euro headlines pairing a cited downside view with a more supportive development, alongside a dovish tone flagged for the Swiss franc. None of this newsflow is presented here as the reason today's prices are where they are.

Key Levels to Watch in the Remainder of the Day

Ahead for the session: the BoE's Breeden speech today at 09:30 UTC, the ECB's Vujčić speech today at 10:00 UTC, the BoE's Mann speech today at 12:50 UTC, and the Fed's Hammack speech today at 16:50 UTC, the last of these arriving well into the New York session.

With the dollar split -- firmer against the yen and the Australian dollar, softer against the euro and sterling -- and EUR/USD's RSI near oversold while USD/CAD's sits near overbought, the near-term picture across majors stays neutral rather than one-directional heading into today's central bank commentary.