EUR/USD Forecast Today: Downside Focus in the London Session

Session brief Bearish bias Sep 29, 2026, 08:33 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

Broad US dollar momentum dominates the London session, pressing EUR/USD lower as market participants await a scheduled speech from European Central Bank President Lagarde.

London Session Footprint

Ethereum leads the board during the London session, up 1.29% on the day, while WTI Crude Oil lags with a 0.6% decline. Traditional currency pairs reflect widespread US dollar strength, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD all registering daily losses, while USD/CAD advances.

EUR/USD and Major Setups

EUR/USD trades at 1.13476, down 0.2% on the day, with both daily and four-hour trends pointing down. Price action sits below the S1 support at 1.13517. A move back above S1 would open the way to the 1.13712 pivot, with further resistance at R1 (1.13898). A continued push lower keeps the technical focus on the day low of 1.13422.

USD/CAD is up 0.13% to 1.41911, trading above its pivot of 1.41596 and testing the R1 resistance at 1.41897. This move is backed by upward trends on both the daily and four-hour charts, with support resting at S1 (1.41424). Elsewhere, AUD/USD trades down 0.36% at 0.69905. The pair is positioned below its 0.70192 pivot and approaching S1 at 0.7, while R1 sits at 0.70347.

Market Themes and US Yields

Across the morning newsflow, analysts at FX Street, ING, MUFG, and OCBC highlight a mix of central bank policy expectations and technical risks. Coverage notes that recent rate action from the Reserve Bank of Australia has not provided a sustained lift for the Australian dollar, while expectations of a softer tone from the European Central Bank may be contributing to euro weakness.

US Treasury yields provide context for today's currency strength. At the September 28 daily close, the 2-year yield registered 4.92%, up 11 basis points, and the 10-year yield reached 5.24%.

Economic Calendar and Bottom Line

The European calendar features the EMU Business Climate, Economic Sentiment Indicator, and Consumer Confidence releases today at 09:00 UTC. The Economic Sentiment Indicator carries an estimate of 99 against a previous 98.4. Today at 11:00 UTC, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech, followed by remarks from several other ECB officials.

In North America, Canadian Gross Domestic Product data is due today at 12:30 UTC. US JOLTS Job Openings follow today at 14:00 UTC, with an estimate of 7.23 against a previous 7.271, alongside US Consumer Confidence figures.

With daily trends for EUR/USD and GBP/USD pointing downward, traders will look to the upcoming ECB speeches and North American data to gauge if the US dollar can maintain its current trajectory against major pivot points.