JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy Preview: USD/JPY Near 158
Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst
USD/JPY last at 158.002, up 0.39%, mixed on the daily chart into today's 23:30 UTC Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (previous 2). R2 at 158.247 is nearest resistance; a firmer print maps toward S1 at 156.657.
| Resistance | Level | Support | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 158.977 | S1 | 156.657 |
| R2 | 158.247 | S2 | 155.927 |
| R1 | 157.817 | S3 | 155.497 |
| Previous day high | 157.516 | Previous day low | 156.356 |
| 20-day high | 159.015 | 20-day low | 152.867 |
| Daily pivot 157.087. Data as of 2026-10-01 20:46 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar. | |||
USD/JPY is at 158.002 in the New York session, up 0.39% from the previous close at 157.388. The daily trend is mixed while the four-hour and hourly trends are up. R2 at 158.247, 24.5 pips above last, is the level that matters most into today's Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy print.
What Japan publishes at 23:30 UTC
Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) is due today at 23:30 UTC. The previous reading was 2; no estimate is listed for that series. The same timestamp brings three more Japanese prints, all on today's economic calendar:
- Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY), previous 1.8, estimate 2.4
- Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY), previous 1.9
- Unemployment Rate, previous 2.4, estimate 2.4
Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC the United States publishes Nonfarm Payrolls, previous 162 and estimate 90, with Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) previous 3.1 and estimate 3.2, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) previous 0.3 and estimate 0.3, and the Unemployment Rate previous 4.1 and estimate 4.1. Factory Orders (MoM) follow at 14:00 UTC, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.1.
Why the print matters for USD/JPY
This is a high-impact yen inflation release. FX Street, FXEmpire and ExchangeRates have concentrated on Bank of Japan caution, a rethink of tighter policy bets, and the absence of yen intervention, with the dollar discussed at elevated levels. A firmer Tokyo reading may add to that policy debate; a softer one may take heat out of it. That is the conversation around the pair, not proof of the next tick.
News sentiment is 45 percent bullish and 55 percent bearish, with media mood at 61 out of 100 versus 41 the prior day. The opportunity read is bullish at a score of 33.
The 2-year US Treasury yield is at 4.78%, down 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield is at 5.24%, down 5 basis points. That is dollar-rate context, not a demonstrated cause of the session's 0.39% gain.
Where USD/JPY sits going in
The live USD/JPY rate is 158.002, with the day open at 157.376, the day high at 158.43 and the day low at 157.21. The day's range is 122 pips, 95 percent of the 14-period ATR at 1.283. Yesterday's close was 157.388, with yesterday's high at 157.516 and yesterday's low at 156.356. Last is above yesterday's high.
Price holds above the daily 200-day EMA at 157.733. Daily RSI is 50.7 and the daily trend is mixed, even as the four-hour trend is up around the 20-period EMA at 157.644 and the hourly trend is up around the 20-period EMA at 157.922. The daily 20-day EMA is at 157.097 and the daily 50-day EMA is at 157.967.
The five-day change is -0.18%, with the five-day high at 159.015 and the five-day low at 156.356. The twenty-day change is -0.42%, with the twenty-day high at 159.015 and the twenty-day low at 152.867.
Nearest resistance is R2 at 158.247. Nearest support is R1 at 157.817, 18.5 pips below last. The daily pivot is at 157.087, S1 at 156.657 and R3 at 158.977. The round figure at 158 sits just under spot; 158.5 is the round level above. Those levels can be checked on a pivot point calculator.
As of the week to September 22, large speculators were net short USD/JPY. Speculators reduced net short USD/JPY that week.
Firmer versus softer inflation scenarios
The previous reading of 2 is the available reference for Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy. Neither side of the print sets the size of the reaction in advance. Map each case onto the existing levels.
Softer than the previous reading
A result below 2 would be the softer inflation case and sits with the upside USD/JPY map. A break above R2 at 158.247 would open the way to R3 at 158.977, 73 pips beyond the trigger. A move back below the daily pivot at 157.087 would invalidate that view.
Firmer than the previous reading
A result above 2 would be the firmer inflation case. If USD/JPY then loses S1 at 156.657, S2 at 155.927 is the objective on that map, also 73 pips from the trigger. Recovering the daily pivot at 157.087 would take that view off the table.
Bottom line
USD/JPY goes into today's 23:30 UTC Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy print at 158.002, mixed on the daily chart and up on the four-hour and hourly charts, with R2 at 158.247 the nearest resistance. A firmer-than-previous reading would align with the downside map through S1 at 156.657; a softer reading would align with a test of that R2. Tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC, estimate 90 versus previous 162, is the next high-impact dollar event after this release.
FAQ
When is Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy released and what was the previous reading?
It is released today at 23:30 UTC. The previous reading was 2. The same timestamp includes Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, estimate 2.4 and previous 1.8, plus the Tokyo Consumer Price Index, previous 1.9.
What USD/JPY levels matter most ahead of the Tokyo CPI print?
Last price is 158.002. Nearest resistance is R2 at 158.247 and nearest support is R1 at 157.817. A break above R2 at 158.247 would open the way to R3 at 158.977, while a break below S1 at 156.657 would open the way to S2 at 155.927; both maps invalidate through the daily pivot at 157.087.
How could a firmer or softer Tokyo CPI print map onto USD/JPY?
A result above the previous reading of 2 would be the firmer inflation case and aligns with the downside map through S1 at 156.657 toward S2 at 155.927. A result below 2 would be the softer case and aligns with a break of R2 at 158.247 toward R3 at 158.977. Neither path sets the size of the move in advance.
When are US Nonfarm Payrolls relative to this Tokyo CPI release?
Nonfarm Payrolls print tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, previous 162 and estimate 90, with Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate at the same time. That follows today's 23:30 UTC Tokyo CPI cluster. USD/JPY's daily trend is mixed going into both events.
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