USD/JPY Forecast Today: Spot Pauses Near 157.50

Daily outlook Neutral bias Sep 28, 2026, 06:46 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY trades near 157.441 as the Asian session continues. Conflicting trend states across daily, H4, and H1 charts point to a neutral outlook ahead of tomorrow's scheduled Fed commentary.

The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading at 157.441 during the Asian session, marking an increase of 0.12% or 0.182 on the day. The pair opened today at 157.186 and has moved between an intraday high of 157.833 and an intraday low of 157.162. This daily range of 67.1 pips represents exactly 50% of the 14-day average true range (ATR), which currently stands at 1.334. This compressed volatility suggests that while the market is pointing upward, it has yet to generate a full-scale momentum breakout.

Technical Analysis: Conflicting Trend Signals

Our current USD/JPY technical analysis shows conflicting signals across different timeframes, resulting in an overall neutral daily outlook. On the daily chart, the trend is categorized as mixed, with the spot price currently trading below its 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) of 157.748. The daily 20-period EMA is situated at 157.013, while the daily 50-period EMA sits at 158.048, and the daily 14-period RSI rests right at the midpoint of 50. These daily signals demonstrate a lack of clear direction. Meanwhile, the four-hour (H4) trend is also mixed, with the H4 EMA20 at 157.735 and the H4 EMA50 at 157.247. On the hourly (H1) chart, short-term momentum tilts downward, marked by an H1 EMA20 of 157.623 and an H1 EMA50 of 157.816. Because these three timeframes do not align, we maintain a neutral bias for the day.

Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

The nearest technical barrier for buyers is the daily pivot at 157.691, which is located 25 pips above the current spot price. On the downside, the closest support lies at the previous day low of 156.917, situated 52.4 pips below current market pricing. Traders looking at historical ranges will note that the 5-day high is established at 159.015, whereas the 5-day low is down at 156.557. In a broader window, the 20-day high is located at 160.37, while the 20-day low is found at 152.867. Additionally, the pair is operating between immediate round-number levels, with psychological resistance positioned just above at 157.5 and round-number support lying below at 157.

Bullish and Bearish Trading Scenarios

For traders utilizing pivot levels, a bullish development would require a clean break above the R1 resistance level at 158.465. If this trigger is breached, it could open the way toward the R2 resistance level at 159.671, which lies 120.6 pips above the entry point. In this scenario, a move back below the daily pivot at 157.691 would invalidate the upward bias. You can learn more about understanding pivot points to map these intraday levels.

Conversely, a bearish breakdown would be triggered by a move below the S1 support level at 156.485. A sustained drop below this trigger level could clear the path toward the S2 support level at 155.711, representing a potential move of 77.4 pips. This bearish outlook would be invalidated if the price moves back above the daily pivot at 157.691.

US Yields and Central Bank Outlook

Scheduled macroeconomic triggers remain light today, but tomorrow on Tuesday, the economic calendar features a speech from Federal Reserve official Musalem at 11:30 UTC. Headlines from financial publishers reflect a focus on the broader drivers of the pair. Analysts at MUFG, as reported by FX Street, highlighted recent US Dollar strength, while JPMorgan, according to ExchangeRates, noted potential boundaries for the pair following a recent Japanese Yen rebound. Additionally, weekly outlook commentary from Forexcom suggests that US interest rates remain the dominant driver.

Providing broader context, US Treasury yields at the close on September 25, 2026, saw the 3-month yield at 4.24%, the 2-year yield at 4.81% (down 6 basis points), and the 10-year yield at 5.17% (down 1 basis point), leaving the 2s10s yield curve at 36 basis points. Regarding market positioning, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 22, 2026, shows that large speculators were net short USD/JPY in pair terms. Speculators reduced their net short position during that weekly reporting period, with speculative long positions in Japanese Yen futures at 61.5% and short positions at 38.5%, representing a net of 71982 contracts compared to 120359 contracts the week prior.

Bottom Line for the Asian Session

As the Asian session progresses, the USD/JPY pair remains caught in a tight range, restricted by the daily pivot resistance at 157.691 and the immediate round-level resistance of 157.5. Given the conflicting trend states across daily, four-hour, and hourly charts, a neutral bias is warranted until a sustained break occurs. Market participants should monitor the previous day low at 156.917 and the daily pivot for directional clues ahead of tomorrow's scheduled Fed commentary.