Why is gold falling today?

In the Asia session Gold (XAU/USD) last printed at 4117.63, down 7.45, or 0.18%, from the previous close at 4125.08, with the daily, H4 and H1 trends all down. FX Street and FXEmpire coverage is discussing a softer gold price alongside oil and further Federal Reserve tightening, which may be part of the conversation and does not prove the cause of the print.

Is XAU/USD at risk of a further breakdown?

The last price at 4117.63 and the day low at 4106.13 are still above S1 at 4105.99. A break below S1 at 4105.99 would open the way to S2 at 4086.91, and a move back above the daily pivot at 4130.66 would invalidate that path. That is a conditional level map, not a forecast that the break happens.

How are oil prices and Fed hike bets affecting gold?

Several FX Street and FXEmpire headlines place oil and the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening next to a softer gold price. At the October 20 close the 2-year yield was 4.79%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield was 5.12%, down 3 basis points. Those are coverage themes and yield context, not evidence that they caused the Asia print at 4117.63.

What levels would end today's gold range?

The day high is 4131.73 and the day low is 4106.13, with the last price at 4117.63 between them. The bullish path, a break above R1 at 4149.74 toward R2 at 4174.41, is invalidated by a move back below the daily pivot at 4130.66. The bearish path, a break below S1 at 4105.99 toward S2 at 4086.91, is invalidated by a move back above that same pivot.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast Today: Below the Daily Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 21, 2026, 06:20 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold (XAU/USD) is at 4117.63 in the Asia session, down 0.18% and below the daily pivot at 4130.66, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all down.

Asian man standing in front of tall window with mug and looking out

Price4,117.63

Day change-0.18%

Day range4,106.13 - 4,131.73

ATR (14)75.90

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	4,193.49	S1	4,105.99
R2	4,174.41	S2	4,086.91
R1	4,149.74	S3	4,062.24
Previous day high	4,155.32	Previous day low	4,111.57
20-day high	4,369.20	20-day low	4,066.34
Daily pivot 4,130.66. Data as of 2026-10-21 06:15 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 4,130.66, R1 4,149.74, R2 4,174.41, S1 4,105.99, S2 4,086.91 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — Gold (XAU/USD), 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-21 06:15 UTC.

Where Gold (XAU/USD) stands in Asia

Gold (XAU/USD) last printed at 4117.63 in the Asia session, down 7.45, or 0.18%, from the previous close at 4125.08. The day open is 4127.82, the day high is 4131.73 and the day low is 4106.13, so the last price is inside the day range and under the open. The bid is 4117.63 and the ask is 4117.98, a spread of 0.35.

The day range of 25.6 is 34% of the 14-day ATR at 75.9. London opens at 07:00 UTC and has not started, so this range is still the Asia print. Yesterday's high was 4155.32, yesterday's low was 4111.57 and yesterday's range was 43.75, with yesterday's close at 4125.08. On the Gold (XAU/USD) chart, the last price sits between S1 at 4105.99 and the daily pivot at 4130.66.

Trend and momentum line up lower

The daily trend is down. Price is below the 200-day EMA at 4417.83, and the 20-day EMA at 4184.18 and the 50-day EMA at 4244.59 are above the last price as well. Daily RSI is 41.8. The four-hour trend is down, with the H4 20-period EMA at 4138.61 and the H4 50-period EMA at 4150.78. The one-hour trend is down, with the H1 20-period EMA at 4122.1 and the H1 50-period EMA at 4133.59, and 4117.63 is under both hourly averages.

Daily, H4 and H1 agree: each state is down, so the timeframes do not conflict and the read stays bearish. Five-day performance is down 1.04%. Twenty-day performance is down 5.52%.

Levels around the last price

Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 4130.66, 13.03 dollars above the last price. Nearest support is the previous day low at 4111.57, 6.06 dollars below it. The day low at 4106.13 is under that previous day low, while the last price at 4117.63 is above it. The day high at 4131.73 is above the daily pivot.

R1 is at 4149.74, R2 is at 4174.41 and R3 is at 4193.49. S1 is at 4105.99, S2 is at 4086.91 and S3 is at 4062.24. The previous day high is at 4155.32.

The five-day high is 4198.56 and the five-day low is 4073.3. The twenty-day high is 4369.2 and the twenty-day low is 4066.34. The round level below price is 4100 and the round level above price is 4150, with 4150 just over R1 at 4149.74 and 4100 under S1 at 4105.99.

Bullish scenario and bearish scenario

Trading above R1 at 4149.74 would open the way to R2 at 4174.41, a 24.67 dollar span from trigger to target. A move back below the daily pivot at 4130.66 would invalidate that bullish path. The last price is still under the pivot, so this path has not been triggered.

On the downside, S1 at 4105.99 is the trigger and S2 at 4086.91 is the target, 19.08 dollars apart on the listed span. That case is cancelled by a return above the daily pivot at 4130.66. The day low at 4106.13 has not gone through S1. The same map is carried in the Gold (XAU/USD) technical read.

What could move Gold into the London open

Today's calendar is empty: no release time in UTC, no previous figure and no estimate. London opens at 07:00 UTC, and that open is still ahead of this Asia session.

FX Street and FXEmpire titles cluster around a softer gold price, with oil and the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening showing up in more than one headline. As reported by those publishers, that is the newsflow in circulation; it may shape the discussion and it does not prove the cause of the move to 4117.63.

News volume is 144% of the 90-day average. The opportunity read is -59 and bearish, and an alert records that read moving from -32, bearish, to -10, neutral, in 24 hours, which is news sentiment rather than a forecast.

As of the week to October 13, large speculators were net long Gold (XAU/USD), 86.8% long and 13.2% short, with a net 207879 contracts versus 210335 the week before. Speculators reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD) by a net change of -2456 contracts, a delayed positioning snapshot and not a forecast.

US Treasury yields are the October 20 close. The 2-year yield was at 4.79%, up 2 basis points versus October 19, the 10-year yield was at 5.12%, down 3 basis points, the 3-month yield was at 4.26%, and the 2s10s curve was 33 basis points, all as context beside gold rather than a proven driver of this session.

Bottom line

Gold (XAU/USD) in Asia is at 4117.63, down 0.18% from the previous close, and the daily, H4 and H1 trends are all down. The last price is between S1 at 4105.99 and the daily pivot at 4130.66, with the previous day low at 4111.57 the nearest support and that pivot, 13.03 dollars away, the nearest resistance. Above, a break of R1 at 4149.74 would open R2 at 4174.41 and would fail on a move back below the daily pivot; below, a break of S1 at 4105.99 would open S2 at 4086.91 and would fail on a move back above the daily pivot.