What is the expected impact of today's US CPI on gold prices?

The CPI year-on-year estimate is 3.6% against 3.4% previously, due at 12:30 UTC alongside the month-on-month, core month-on-month and core year-on-year prints at the same time. There is no release history available for this report, so no past-performance read can be given for how gold has moved after prior CPI surprises.

How will Fed speeches influence XAU/USD today?

Fed's Bowman is scheduled to speak at 09:40 UTC and again at 14:55 UTC, with the Beige Book and the Monthly Budget Statement following at 18:00 UTC. These are listed as medium-impact events on today's calendar; there is no data available to predict their effect on price.

What are the key support and resistance levels for gold?

The nearest resistance is the daily pivot at $4,169.33, and the nearest support is the previous day low at $4,146.78. Further out, R1 sits at $4,191.89 and R2 at $4,222.95, while S1 sits at $4,138.27 and S2 at $4,115.71.

How does geopolitical risk affect gold today?

An FX Street headline referenced geopolitical risks alongside today's CPI setup, but there is no data to confirm or quantify any effect on today's price action.

Gold Forecast Today: XAU/USD Holds Below $4,169 Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 14, 2026, 06:22 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold sits between the previous day low at $4,146.78 and the daily pivot at $4,169.33 as daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all point lower ahead of today's US CPI report and two Fed speeches.

Crumpled metallic gold texture with deep shadows

Price4,159.42

Day change-0.03%

Day range4,144.36 - 4,170.27

ATR (14)81.80

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	4,245.51	S1	4,138.27
R2	4,222.95	S2	4,115.71
R1	4,191.89	S3	4,084.65
Previous day high	4,200.40	Previous day low	4,146.78
20-day high	4,399.52	20-day low	4,066.34
Daily pivot 4,169.33. Data as of 2026-10-14 06:18 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 4,169.33, R1 4,191.89, R2 4,222.95, S1 4,138.27, S2 4,115.71 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — Gold (XAU/USD), 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-14 06:18 UTC.

Gold Holds Below the Pivot as the Asia Session Rolls On

Gold trades at $4,159.42 during the Asia session, down $1.40 on the day, or 0.03%, with London set to open at 07:00 UTC. The day's range so far runs from a low of $4,144.36 to a high of $4,170.27, following an open at $4,161.96 and a previous close at $4,160.82.

That $25.91 range covers roughly 32% of the 14-day ATR of $81.80, a quieter session than the full daily swing capacity would allow. For a live read on how that range develops into the London and New York hours, the live Gold (XAU/USD) rate and chart updates through the session.

Trend and Momentum Agree Lower

The daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all point the same way: down. On the daily chart, price sits below the 20-day EMA at $4,212.17, the 50-day EMA at $4,267.51 and the 200-day EMA at $4,420.28, with price itself sitting below that 200-day average. The four-hour EMA20 at $4,167.72 sits under its EMA50 at $4,169.80, and the one-hour EMA20 at $4,163.20 sits under its EMA50 at $4,167.93 — the same alignment one timeframe down.

Daily RSI14 reads 43.1, below the midpoint but not in oversold territory. With all three timeframes aligned lower and momentum soft rather than stretched, the technical read leans bearish rather than mixed.

Levels That Matter for XAU/USD

Price is positioned between S1 at $4,138.27 and the daily pivot at $4,169.33. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot, $9.91 away, while the nearest support is the previous day low at $4,146.78, $12.64 away.

Above the pivot, R1 sits at $4,191.89, R2 at $4,222.95 and R3 at $4,245.51. Below S1, S2 sits at $4,115.71 and S3 at $4,084.65. Readers mapping their own levels can run the numbers through the pivot point calculator.

Yesterday's session, October 13, ran from an open at $4,171.85 to a high of $4,200.40 and a low of $4,146.78, closing at $4,160.82 for a range of $53.62. The five-day window spans a high of $4,217.05 and a low of $4,066.34, while the 20-day window spans a wider high of $4,399.52 against that same $4,066.34 low. The nearest round levels sit at $4,150 below price and $4,200 above it.

Two Scenarios for the Session Ahead

A bullish path opens if gold clears R1 at $4,191.89, which would put R2 at $4,222.95 in view; a slide back below the daily pivot at $4,169.33 would undercut that case. A bearish path opens on a break of S1 at $4,138.27, which would open the way toward S2 at $4,115.71; a recovery back above the daily pivot at $4,169.33 would turn that view aside instead.

What Could Move Gold Today

The calendar is dense. Fed's Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC, ahead of the Consumer Price Index release at 12:30 UTC, where the year-on-year estimate is 3.6% against 3.4% previously, the month-on-month estimate is 0.6% against 0.4% previously, the core month-on-month estimate is 0.2% against 0.3% previously, and the core year-on-year estimate is 2.5% against 2.4% previously. Bowman speaks again at 14:55 UTC, followed by the Fed's Beige Book and the Monthly Budget Statement — estimated at -29 against -166.8 previously — both at 18:00 UTC. An IMF Meeting is scheduled for tomorrow at 00:00 UTC. The guide to using an economic calendar covers how to read releases like these alongside price levels.

Coverage from outlets including FXStreet and FXEmpire frames gold as holding near current levels while the dollar eases back, with today's inflation data cast as the next focal point for direction.

CFTC data show speculators were net long Gold (XAU/USD) as of the week to October 6, with longs making up 87.5% of futures positioning. Speculators reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD) by 8,297 contracts from the prior week, to 210,335 contracts.

The 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.79% on October 13, down 1 basis point versus October 9, while the 10-year closed at 5.21%, down 3 basis points, putting the 2s10s curve at 42 basis points — context for the rate backdrop rather than a signal on its own.

News coverage volume on gold is running at 156% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read stands at -3, a neutral score; that reading has moved quickly, from 12 (neutral) to 59 (bullish) in the past 24 hours. This is a measure of coverage tone and opportunity scoring, not positioning or a forecast.

Bottom Line

Gold holds a narrow, lower-leaning setup inside the band between the previous day low at $4,146.78 and the daily pivot at $4,169.33, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all pointing down and RSI14 at 43.1. A break above R1 at $4,191.89 or below S1 at $4,138.27 would mark the range giving way, with today's CPI release and two Fed speeches among the scheduled events sitting between here and either outcome. Full pivot context for the pair is available on the Gold (XAU/USD) analysis page.