Forex Weekly Recap: Pound and Euro Gain as Gold, Crypto Slip

Week wrap Neutral bias Oct 16, 2026, 21:35 UTC

James WhitmoreChief Market Strategist · ForexR analyst

Dollar pairs finished the week split as GBP/USD and EUR/USD edged higher while gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum lost ground; near-term pivot, support and resistance levels stay in focus into next week.

Winners and Losers: Dollar Pairs Split as Metals and Crypto Retreat

Cash forex trading wrapped up for the week with no single theme in control. EUR/USD settled at 1.12378, essentially on the daily pivot at 1.12379 and just above the S1 support at 1.1207, up 0.17% on the day but only 0.32% higher over the past five sessions. GBP/USD held the firmer side of the ledger, last at 1.33274 between the daily pivot at 1.332 and R1 at 1.33783, for a 0.72% five-day gain, while gold and both major cryptocurrencies closed the week lower.

The table below ranks the week's moves by five-day percentage change across the pairs, gold and crypto covered here.

Ethereum led the week's decliners, with Bitcoin close behind; both last traded between their respective pivot and support/resistance bands, at 2417.26 and 81587.04. A currency strength meter is one way to see how unevenly that pressure was spread across the majors this week.

Daily Trend and RSI Point to a Mixed Week

Momentum readings back up the split. EUR/USD's daily trend is down with the four-hour trend mixed and the 14-day RSI at 39.9, consistent with price sitting just under the pivot. AUD/USD shows a similar pattern, down 0.56% over five days with both daily and four-hour trends pointing down and RSI at 39.3, while USD/CAD's daily trend reads mixed, the four-hour trend down, and RSI near the midpoint at 50.5 after last trading at 1.41376 between S1 at 1.41154 and the pivot at 1.41567.

GBP/USD and USD/JPY carry the firmer RSI readings of the group, at 52.4 and 52.1, with GBP/USD's four-hour trend up even as its daily trend reads mixed. Gold's daily trend is down with RSI at 45.4, last at 4164.05 between S1 at 4144.38 and the pivot at 4171.47; a reclaim of the pivot would open the way toward R1 at 4195.78, while a break of S1 would keep the week's softer tone in play. Bitcoin and Ethereum both carry four-hour downtrends and RSI readings below 46, at 45.2 and 39.8, with Ethereum's range for the day running from a low of 2391.26 to a high of 2486.42. For context on how these swings compare with longer-run volatility, EUR/USD's 14-day ATR sits near 65.5 pips and gold's near $80.27, a gap covered in the ATR and volatility guide.

Yields, Positioning and the Week's Newsflow

US Treasury yields at the October 16 close stood at 4.26% on the three-month bill, 4.74% on the two-year note and 5.09% on the ten-year, with the two-year down 3 basis points and the ten-year down 1 basis point versus October 15, leaving the 2s10s curve at 35 basis points. Those are daily closing levels and context only, not a signal of what any pair does next.

CFTC data for the week to October 13 showed speculators net short EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, with each of those short positions added to over the week, while USD/JPY stayed net short but that position was trimmed. Futures positioning also remained net long USD/CAD and was extended further, net long gold was reduced, and net long Bitcoin was pared back.

This week's coverage leaned on two themes: the dollar's inconsistent follow-through against the euro, pound and yen, as flagged by Forex.com, and gold's difficulty holding a clear direction near overhead resistance, a point raised by both Forex.com and FXEmpire. Other pieces, including coverage from FX Street, tied bullion's softer tone to shifting Fed rate-hike expectations and a firmer oil market, while separate silver commentary pointed to that metal drifting toward oversold territory.

What's on the Calendar Next Week

The IMF's meeting continues tomorrow and again on Sunday, a medium-impact USD-dated event with no estimate attached. Monday brings a run of ECB commentary, with Sleijpen, Lane and Elderson all scheduled to speak, each rated medium impact.

Monday also carries Canada's inflation update at 12:30 UTC: headline CPI is estimated at 0.2% month-on-month against a previous -0.1%, year-on-year CPI last printed at 3%, and the Bank of Canada's core CPI measures - previously 0.1% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year - carry a high-impact rating on the annual reading. The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey follows at 14:30 UTC. With USD/CAD last at 1.41376 between S1 at 1.41154 and the pivot at 1.41567, the pivot point calculator and the guide to reading an economic calendar may help frame how close that release sits to the day's reference points.

Bottom Line

The week's data leaves no single dollar trend in place: GBP/USD and EUR/USD finished higher while USD/JPY, AUD/USD and USD/CAD all slipped, and with daily and four-hour trend readings disagreeing across several of these pairs, the near-term picture reads as neutral rather than one-directional. Gold and crypto head into next week on the softer side of their own five-day ranges, with gold last between S1 at 4144.38 and the pivot at 4171.47, and Monday's Canadian inflation data and the ECB speeches stand as the next scheduled tests for that balance.