New York Session Forex Update: GBP/USD Hits Monthly High

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 16, 2026, 12:50 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

GBP/USD has broken above its pivot ladder to a fresh monthly high while gold holds near the day's highs; the broader US dollar picture stays mixed and neutral across major pairs ahead of today's US data.

The New York Session Snapshot

GBP/USD is the session's headline mover, trading above R1 at 1.3307 and beyond the top of its pivot ladder after a fresh monthly high, up 0.44% on the day. Ethereum is the biggest gainer across the board, up 5.02% near 2469.86, with AUD/USD also firmer, up 0.51%. On the softer side, WTI crude is down 0.41%, the Nasdaq 100 is down 0.16% and USD/CAD is down 0.1%, while USD/JPY sits unchanged on the day at 157.971 and EUR/USD and gold hold modest gains of 0.22% and 0.11% respectively.

Where the Setups Stand

Working from levels built the same way as the pivot point calculator, GBP/USD's push beyond R1 at 1.3307 leaves the daily pivot at 1.32431 and S1 at 1.3209 as the nearest levels back down the ladder. The four-hour trend is up even though the daily trend reads mixed, so a slide back under R1 at 1.3307 would question the breakout, while a deeper retreat toward the pivot at 1.32431 would mark a fuller pullback. Holding above R1 keeps the recent high in focus, though no further resistance level is defined above the current ladder.

Gold trades between the daily pivot at 4149.24 and R1 at 4198.58, having moved between a day high of 4192.11 and a day low of 4147.16. A close through R1 at 4198.58 would extend today's 0.11% gain, while a fall back under the pivot at 4149.24 would put S1 at 4121.22 back in view. The daily trend is down against a mixed four-hour trend, a split that keeps today's firmness tentative rather than confirmed.

EUR/USD sits between the daily pivot at 1.12018 and R1 at 1.12566, up 0.22% on the day after a day high of 1.12688 and a day low of 1.12073. A break through R1 at 1.12566 would be the next test for the pair, while a move back under the pivot at 1.12018 would open the way toward S1 at 1.11634. The daily trend is down against a mixed four-hour trend, leaving the pair without a clear directional lean.

Newsflow Themes

Coverage from FX Street, Orbex and Forex.com this morning centers on sterling's push to a fresh monthly high, on questions over whether gold's firmness amounts to real momentum as the Federal Reserve moves toward a blackout period, and on whether a softening dollar tone can extend the rebound in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. A broader read across pairs, such as the currency strength meter, shows that softness is not uniform: USD/CAD's daily trend is still up even as the pair is down on the day, and EUR/USD's daily trend is down even as it gains, which is why the dollar picture stays mixed rather than one-directional.

Calendar Ahead

Two US releases remain on today's calendar. Industrial Production (MoM) lands at 13:15 UTC, with the estimate at 0.4% against a previous reading of 0%, arriving before London closes at 16:00 UTC. The Monthly Budget Statement follows later, at 18:00 UTC, once the London session has already closed, with an estimate of -29 against a previous of -166.8. An IMF Meeting is scheduled for tomorrow at 00:00 UTC. For readers tracking these on an economic calendar, the 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.77% on October 15, down 5 basis points versus October 14, and the 10-year closed at 5.10%, down 9 basis points over the same comparison, putting the 2s10s curve at 33 basis points.

Bottom Line

The US dollar picture reads neutral into the afternoon. GBP/USD and AUD/USD are firmer and USD/CAD and EUR/USD show gains or losses that run against their own daily trend readings, so no single lean holds across the board. Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next input before London closes at 16:00 UTC, with the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC following later in the New York afternoon.