Forex Week Ahead: Canadian CPI and ECB Speech in Focus

Week ahead Neutral bias Oct 18, 2026, 21:07 UTC

James WhitmoreChief Market Strategist · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD sits below its daily pivot support ahead of an ECB speech from Lagarde, while Canadian CPI on Monday and UK jobs and inflation data midweek set the tone for GBP/USD and USD/CAD.

Majors Head Into the Week Under Pressure

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.11975, down 0.36% on the day and roughly flat over the past five sessions at -0.03%. Both the daily and four-hour trends point down, and the pair sits below S1 at 1.12071, beyond the bottom of the pivot ladder, with the daily pivot at 1.1238 and R1 at 1.12686 both above current trade.

GBP/USD settled at 1.33037, down 0.18% on the day but still up 0.54% on the week. The daily trend reads mixed while the four-hour trend points higher, and the pair sits between S1 at 1.32691 and the daily pivot at 1.332. USD/JPY finished at 157.906, down 0.04% on the day and down 0.25% over five sessions, caught between S1 at 157.66 and the pivot at 157.989, with a mixed daily trend and a lower four-hour trend.

AUD/USD closed at 0.69613, up 0.25% on the day though down 0.32% over the week, sitting between the daily pivot at 0.69389 and R1 at 0.69714 despite a daily downtrend. USD/CAD was the biggest mover of the group, down 0.21% on the day and down 1.03% over five sessions to 1.41085, trading below S1 at 1.41147 and beyond the bottom of its pivot ladder.

Gold slipped to 4164.05, down 0.16% on the day and down 0.72% on the week, holding between S1 at 4141.29 and the daily pivot at 4169.92 with a daily downtrend and a mixed four-hour picture. Bitcoin was essentially flat on the day at 80888.65 (+0.02%) but down 2.94% on the week, sitting between S1 at 80200.56 and the pivot at 81196.83. Ethereum was the weakest of the two, down 1.98% on the day and down 3.77% on the week to 2352.15, trading below S1 at 2356.77 and beyond the bottom of its own pivot ladder.

The Calendar: Canadian CPI, UK Jobs and Inflation, and a Lagarde Speech

Tomorrow (Monday) brings Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC, both the headline year-on-year reading (previous 3%) and the BoC's core year-on-year measure (previous 2.4%), with no estimate yet published for either. Tuesday's UK data, due at 06:00 UTC, includes the ILO unemployment rate (previous 4.9%, estimate 5%), the claimant count change (previous 27.8, estimate 19.4) and the employment change over three months (previous 67).

Wednesday is the busiest day on the UK side, with CPI year-on-year (previous 3.1%, estimate 3.4%), CPI month-on-month (previous 0.5%) and core CPI year-on-year (previous 2.6%, estimate 2.7%) all due at 06:00 UTC. Later that day, at 16:30 UTC, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Friday closes the week with UK retail sales (previous 0.5%, estimate -0.2%) at 06:00 UTC, flash October PMIs from Germany and the eurozone between 07:30 and 08:00 UTC, UK composite, services and manufacturing PMIs at 08:30 UTC, and the US services PMI at 13:45 UTC (previous 58.8). The economic calendar guide explains how to read previous, estimate and actual figures like these.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD: Levels Tied to This Week's Releases

EUR/USD carries the most direct exposure to Wednesday's Lagarde speech and Friday's eurozone and German PMIs. With the pair below S1 at 1.12071, a move back above that level would put the daily pivot at 1.1238 in view, while a slide beneath the day low at 1.11958 would keep the pair outside the bottom of its pivot ladder.

GBP/USD is most tied to Tuesday's jobs data, Wednesday's CPI prints and Friday's retail sales and PMIs. A push back above the daily pivot at 1.332 would open the way toward R1 at 1.33784, while a drop back below S1 at 1.32691 would point the other way. USD/CAD carries the week's first catalyst with Monday's Canadian CPI. Currently below S1 at 1.41147, a reclaim of that level would open a path back to the daily pivot at 1.41563, while continued weakness would keep the pair under that floor. The currency strength meter can help track how these three currencies move relative to each other as the data lands.

Gold and Crypto: Less Direct, Still Worth Watching

Gold has less direct exposure to this week's calendar but remains sensitive to the same dollar and rate backdrop as EUR/USD and USD/CAD. Holding between S1 at 4141.29 and the daily pivot at 4169.92, a close back above the pivot would open the way to R1 at 4192.69, while a break of S1 would expose further downside. Bitcoin, between S1 at 80200.56 and the pivot at 81196.83, would need to clear the pivot to put R1 at 81865.53 in range, while losing S1 would extend its weekly decline. Ethereum remains below S1 at 2356.77; reclaiming that level would open the way to the daily pivot at 2397.39, while a slide below the day low at 2326.39 would keep it under pressure.

Newsflow, Positioning and Yields

Weekend commentary from Forex.com and FX Street debated whether swelling short positioning in the Australian dollar and euro, against a backdrop of heavy gold exposure, signals a turning point or just stretched sentiment. Separate pieces from FXEmpire and ExchangeRates framed gold as pinned between support and resistance on rate-path uncertainty, alongside a broader split among banks over near-term dollar-pair forecasts.

The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to October 13, showed speculators net short EUR/USD and adding to that short, net short GBP/USD and adding to it, and net short AUD/USD while also adding to that position. USD/CAD positioning was net long and speculators added to it, while USD/JPY was net short but speculators reduced that short. In gold and Bitcoin, speculators remained net long but trimmed those positions over the same week. US Treasury yields closed October 16 with the 2-year at 4.74%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.09%, down 1 basis point, versus October 15, leaving the 3-month at 4.26% and the 2s10s curve at 35 basis points.

Bottom Line

With EUR/USD and USD/CAD both trading beyond the bottom of their pivot ladders and GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold and Bitcoin stuck between support and their daily pivots, the setup into this week's Canadian CPI, UK data and ECB speech looks mixed rather than one-directional. The levels on either side of each daily pivot, outlined above, offer the clearest reference points as the week's releases land; the risk and reward calculator offers a way to frame potential outcomes against them.