Ethereum (ETH/USD) Forecast Today: Bearish Under the Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 26, 2026, 07:51 UTC

Marcus ReedTechnical Analysis Lead · ForexR analyst

Ethereum (ETH/USD) at 2312 is down 0.65% in London and still between S1 at 2300.14 and the daily pivot at 2334.32. Daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all point down.

Where Ethereum (ETH/USD) stands in London

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is lower in the London session, New York joins at 12:00 UTC, and the trend evidence leans bearish while the last price remains inside today's high and low. Last price is 2312, down 15.13 dollars and down 0.65% from the previous close at 2327.13. The day open matches that previous close at 2327.13. The day high stands at 2331.09 and the day low stands at 2294.34, leaving the last price between those two prints.

The day range is 36.75 dollars, which is 39% of the 14-day ATR at 93.46 dollars, on the live Ethereum (ETH/USD) rate, chart and pivots and in the ATR and volatility guide. Yesterday's close was 2326.75 and yesterday's range was 60.79 dollars.

Trend and momentum on the daily, four-hour and one-hour

The daily trend state is down. Price versus the 200-day EMA at 2320.07 is below, the daily 20 EMA is at 2450.58, and the daily 50 EMA is at 2462.63. Last price at 2312 is below the daily 20 EMA and the daily 50 EMA. Daily RSI is 34.1. The four-hour trend state is down, with the four-hour 20 EMA at 2354.51 and the four-hour 50 EMA at 2390.8.

The one-hour trend state is down as well, with the one-hour 20 EMA at 2327.04 and the one-hour 50 EMA at 2343.23. The daily, four-hour and one-hour states all read down, so the timeframes agree and the bias is bearish rather than neutral. The five-day change is down 5.5%, and the twenty-day change is down 14.67%.

Levels around the last price

Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 2334.32, 22.32 dollars above the last price. Nearest support is the previous day low at 2307.71, 4.29 dollars under the last price. Price sits between S1 at 2300.14 and the daily pivot at 2334.32. The round level above the last price is 2350, and the round level below the last price is 2300.

The day high at 2331.09 remains under the daily pivot at 2334.32. The day low at 2294.34 is under the previous day low at 2307.71, under the round level at 2300 and under S1 at 2300.14, while the last price at 2312 is above the previous day low at 2307.71. Above the pivot, resistance is R1 at 2360.93, R2 at 2395.11 and R3 at 2421.72, and yesterday's high at 2368.5 sits between R1 at 2360.93 and R2 at 2395.11 on that ladder, as described in how pivot points work.

Below the last price, support is S1 at 2300.14, S2 at 2273.53 and S3 at 2239.35. The five-day high is 2524.38 and the five-day low is 2275.94, with S2 at 2273.53 under that five-day low. The twenty-day high is 2725.06 and the twenty-day low is 2275.94, with S2 at 2273.53 under that twenty-day low as well.

Bullish path and bearish path

A break above R1 at 2360.93 would open the way to R2 at 2395.11. The distance from that trigger to that target is 34.18 dollars. A move back below the daily pivot at 2334.32 would invalidate the bullish path, and the pivot stays the invalidation rather than the trigger.

If S1 at 2300.14 gives way, the bearish path runs toward S2 at 2273.53. The distance from that trigger to that target is 26.61 dollars. That reading fails if price moves back above the daily pivot at 2334.32. Last price at 2312 is above S1 at 2300.14, the day low at 2294.34 is below both S1 at 2300.14 and the round level at 2300, and the previous day low at 2307.71 is still above S1 at 2300.14.

Tomorrow's calendar and the London newsflow

No release on this calendar falls today. New York joins at 12:00 UTC, while every listed US item is tomorrow and medium impact. Tomorrow at 12:15 UTC the ADP Employment Change four-week average is due, with a previous reading of 18.5 and no estimate. Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC Durable Goods Orders is due, with a previous reading of 0 and an estimate of 0.6.

Also tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft has a previous reading of 1.6 and no estimate, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense has a previous reading of 0.1 and no estimate, and Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation has a previous reading of 0.3 and an estimate of 0.6. Tomorrow at 13:00 UTC the Housing Price Index month over month is due, with a previous reading of 0.3 and an estimate of 0.1. The schedule lists those prints and does not rank them against the daily pivot at 2334.32 or the previous day low at 2307.71.

Tokenpost and Crypto Briefing are carrying an ether fund-outflow theme, while Tokenpost also notes ether being moved or sold, which may color the London conversation as those publishers report it, without proving the decline from the previous close. The opportunity read is bearish with a score of -45. That score is news sentiment only, not trader positioning and not a forecast.

Bottom line

For the London session still underway, Ethereum (ETH/USD) at 2312 is down 0.65% from the previous close and remains inside the day high at 2331.09 and the day low at 2294.34. Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 2334.32 and nearest support is the previous day low at 2307.71, with the daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all down. A break above R1 at 2360.93 would open the way to R2 at 2395.11, whereas a loss of S1 at 2300.14 would expose S2 at 2273.53, and either path would fail on a move back across the daily pivot at 2334.32.