Ethereum (ETH/USD) Forecast Today: ETH Holds Above the Daily Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 18, 2026, 07:06 UTC

Marcus ReedTechnical Analysis Lead · ForexR analyst

ETH/USD trades near $2409.82, up 0.42% on the day, holding above the daily pivot at $2397.39 but still capped below R1 at $2440.39 as the daily, H4 and H1 trends disagree.

Ethereum Price Now: Rebound Steadies Between Pivot And R1

ETH/USD last traded at $2409.82, up $10.04, or 0.42%, from the previous close. The session opened at $2399.78 and has ranged between a low of $2395.37 and a high of $2424.30, a day range of $28.93 that covers only about 30% of the 14-day Average True Range of $96.80 — a narrower band than typical daily volatility, as laid out in ForexR's guide to ATR and volatility.

Trend And Momentum: Daily, H4 And H1 Disagree

The daily trend is labeled mixed, with price holding above the 200-day EMA at $2314.83 but below the 20-day EMA at $2524.12 and the 50-day EMA at $2488.09. On the four-hour chart the trend reads down, with the EMA20 at $2429.40 sitting beneath the EMA50 at $2469.16, and the one-hour trend is also down, with its EMA20 at $2411.53 below its EMA50 at $2419.37. Daily RSI14 sits at 37.1, below the midpoint and in line with declines of 1.41% over 5 days and 10.36% over 20 days. With the daily reading mixed and the shorter frames both pointing lower, the setup reads as neutral rather than a clean trend in either direction.

Levels That Matter: Pivot, Prior Day And The Wider Range

Price sits between the daily pivot at $2397.39 and R1 at $2440.39. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at $2438.00, $28.18 above the last price, while the nearest support is the daily pivot at $2397.39, just $12.43 below it. The full pivot ladder runs from S3 at $2273.15 and S2 at $2313.77 through S1 at $2356.77 up to R2 at $2481.01 and R3 at $2524.01, built the way ForexR's pivot points guide describes.

Yesterday's session opened at $2419.92 and ran to a high of $2438.00 and a low of $2354.38 before closing at $2399.78, a range of $83.62. Zooming out, the 5-day range spans a low of $2313.07 to a high of $2535.30, while the 20-day range spans a low of $2313.07 to a high of $2776.80. The round number at $2400 sits just above the daily pivot, inside the pivot-to-R1 band, while $2450 sits above R1 at $2440.39, on the path toward R2 at $2481.01.

Bullish And Bearish Scenarios For ETH/USD

On the upside, a push through resistance at R1 ($2440.39) would open the way toward R2 at $2481.01; a fall back below the daily pivot at $2397.39 would undercut that case. On the downside, a slide through S1 at $2356.77 would open the way to S2 at $2313.77; a recovery back above the daily pivot at $2397.39 would cancel that setup. Either path can be measured against the daily pivot using ForexR's risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move ETH Today

There is nothing on today's calendar specific to this market. Newsflow today splits between Tokenpost reports tying a Bitcoin and Ether rebound to a selloff that triggered leveraged liquidations and mixed-to-bearish venue readings, and CryptoPotato's account of a separate, sudden derivatives dump across crypto and AI-linked stocks driven by "Black Monday" fears. News sentiment's opportunity reading sits at -43, in bearish territory, a measure of coverage tone rather than a signal for where price goes next.

Bottom Line

ETH/USD has clawed back part of yesterday's drop but remains boxed between the daily pivot at $2397.39 and R1 at $2440.39, with the daily trend mixed and both the H4 and H1 trends still pointing down. A clear break of either boundary, rather than the current chop inside the range, would be needed to settle the near-term direction.