Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast Today: Below the Daily Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 9, 2026, 06:59 UTC

Marcus ReedTechnical Analysis Lead · ForexR analyst

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is up 0.3% on the day at 74283.03 but sits below the daily pivot at 74534.81, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all down.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price in the Asia session

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) last printed at 74283.03 in the Asia session, with the clock at 06:54 UTC. The move on the day is up 225.25, or 0.3 percent, from the previous close at 74057.78. The day open is 74053.74, the day high is 75623.08 and the day low is 73870.17. The bid is 74283.03, the ask is 74298.03 and the spread is 15 dollars, as shown on the live Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rate.

The range on the day is 1752.91 dollars, or 75 percent of the 14-day ATR at 2329.38 dollars. London opens at 07:00 UTC, so this figure is the day range so far, not a finished day. Yesterday's bar on November 8 opened at 75648.47, with a high at 76092.28, a low at 73454.36 and yesterday's close at 74057.78, a range of 2637.92 dollars. The ATR and volatility guide is the reference for that 14-day reading beside the day range.

Daily, four-hour and one-hour momentum

The daily trend state is down. The daily 20-period EMA is at 78320.05, the daily 50-period EMA is at 79361.51 and the daily 200-period EMA is at 76230.65. Price is below the 200-period EMA. Daily RSI is 34.1. The five-day change is down 4.51 percent, and the 20-day change is down 9.3 percent.

The four-hour trend state is down, with the four-hour 20-period EMA at 75804.66 and the four-hour 50-period EMA at 76861.08. The one-hour trend state is down, with the one-hour 20-period EMA at 75072.67 and the one-hour 50-period EMA at 75518.36. The three states agree, and the evidence leans bearish.

The last price at 74283.03 is under the daily 20-period EMA at 78320.05, under the daily 50-period EMA at 79361.51 and under the daily 200-period EMA at 76230.65. That same print is under the four-hour 20-period EMA at 75804.66, under the four-hour 50-period EMA at 76861.08, under the one-hour 20-period EMA at 75072.67 and under the one-hour 50-period EMA at 75518.36.

Nearest levels, pivots and ranges

The last price sits between S1 at 72977.33 and the daily pivot at 74534.81. Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 74534.81, 251.78 dollars from the last price. Nearest support is the previous day low at 73454.36, 828.67 dollars from the last price.

Above the pivot, R1 is 75615.25, R2 is 77172.73 and R3 is 78253.17. Below the pivot, S1 is 72977.33, S2 is 71896.89 and S3 is 70339.41. The map follows the layout in how pivot points work.

The previous day high is 76092.28 and the previous day low is 73454.36. The day high at 75623.08 is above R1 at 75615.25, while the last price is below R1. The day low at 73870.17 is above the previous day low at 73454.36 and above S1 at 72977.33. The day high at 75623.08 is below the previous day high at 76092.28.

The five-day high is 81109.34 and the five-day low is 73454.36. The 20-day high is 84844.39 and the 20-day low is 73454.36. The round level below price is 74000 and the round level above price is 75000. The day open at 74053.74 is above 74000, and the last price is below 75000.

Bullish path and bearish path

The higher path does not treat the daily pivot as the trigger. A break above R1 at 75615.25 would open the way to R2 at 77172.73, a listed 1557.48 dollars from trigger to target. A move back below the daily pivot at 74534.81 would invalidate it. The last price is still below R1, so that break is not already done on this print.

R2 at 77172.73 is below the daily 20-period EMA at 78320.05, below the daily 50-period EMA at 79361.51 and below the five-day high at 81109.34. The nearest resistance remains the daily pivot, a different price from R1.

The lower path asks for a different break. A break below S1 at 72977.33 would open the way to S2 at 71896.89, a listed 1080.44 dollars from trigger to target. A move back above the daily pivot at 74534.81 would invalidate it. The last price is still above S1, inside the band between S1 and the pivot.

S1 at 72977.33 is below the previous day low at 73454.36. S2 at 71896.89 is below that same previous day low, below the five-day low and below the 20-day low. S3 at 70339.41 is the next pivot level under S2.

What is scheduled, plus coverage and positioning

London opens at 07:00 UTC. Later today the calendar lists Fed's Bowman speech at 13:40 UTC, Fed's Goolsbee speech at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Barkin speech at 17:15 UTC, each at medium impact, with no previous value and no estimate. Tomorrow, Fed's Waller speech is at 09:00 UTC, also medium impact, again with no previous value and no estimate. These are scheduled US items for today and tomorrow, not a ranking of catalysts.

According to Tokenpost, CryptoPotato and Crypto news, the morning headlines group a crypto selloff with liquidations of about 1 billion dollars.

News sentiment shows volume at 38 percent of the 90-day average. The opportunity read is bearish at -81, and it describes coverage rather than positioning or a forecast.

As of the week to November 3, large speculators were net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD), 53.8 percent long and 46.2 percent short, a net 2230 contracts in Bitcoin CME futures. Speculators reduced net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD) that week, a net change of -490 contracts from 2720 the prior week, which is positioning and not a forecast.

Bottom line before London

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is up 0.3 percent at 74283.03 in the Asia session, with the daily, four-hour and one-hour trends down and price below the daily pivot at 74534.81. Nearest resistance is that pivot, 251.78 dollars away, and nearest support is the previous day low at 73454.36. A break above R1 at 75615.25 would open R2 at 77172.73 and would fail on a move back below the daily pivot, while a break below S1 at 72977.33 would open S2 at 71896.89 and would fail on a move back above the daily pivot.