Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast Today: Bearish Pressure Mounts Below Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 3, 2026, 06:36 UTC

Marcus ReedTechnical Analysis Lead · ForexR analyst

Bitcoin faces downward momentum across intraday and daily timeframes, hovering just above the previous day low. Upcoming US job openings data and ongoing ETF outflows could dictate the next directional move.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Tests Support as ETF Outflows Mount

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) currently trades between S1 at 75914 and the daily pivot at 77345.99, sitting at 76649.27 in the Asia session. London opens next at 07:00 UTC. The technical evidence leans bearish across multiple timeframes. The nearest support is the previous day low at 76560.74, while the nearest resistance rests at the daily pivot at 77345.99. Price is down 49.98 on the day, a 0.07% drop from the previous close. The day high stands at 77198.1 and the day low at 76231.55, forming a range of 966.55. This action accounts for 47% of the 14-day average true range of 2036.97, reflecting limited volatility thus far in the live Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rate.

Trend and Momentum Align Lower

The timeframes agree on a downward trajectory. On the daily chart, the trend state is down, though price remains above the 200-period exponential moving average at 76235.79. The daily EMA20 sits higher at 80011.53 and the EMA50 at 80157.82. The 4-hour chart reinforces this structure with a downward state, tracking below its EMA20 at 77616.18 and EMA50 at 78641.07. Zooming into the 1-hour chart, momentum remains down as price moves beneath the EMA20 at 77018.57 and the EMA50 at 77400.69. The daily 14-period Relative Strength Index reads at 35.4, indicating weak momentum.

Key Levels Framing the Action

Action centers around immediate technical barriers. The nearest support level is the previous day low at 76560.74, while the closest resistance is the daily pivot at 77345.99. Should price push higher, the pivot sequence places R1 at 78131.24, R2 at 79563.23, and R3 at 80348.48. On the downside, breaking S1 at 75914 exposes S2 at 75128.75 and S3 at 73696.76. Yesterday's price action spanned from a high of 78777.98 to a low of 76560.74. The 5-day window displays a high of 81876.74 and a low of 76173.36. The 20-day window holds a high of 84844.39 and a low of 76173.36. Round numbers also factor in, with 77000 capping the upside and 76000 situated below.

Trade Scenarios

In a bearish setup, a break below S1 at 75914 would open the way to S2 at 75128.75. A move back above the daily pivot at 77345.99 would invalidate this view. For a bullish case, a break above R1 at 78131.24 would open the way to R2 at 79563.23. A subsequent move back below the daily pivot at 77345.99 would invalidate the upside prospect. The distance from trigger to target can be evaluated with a risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move the Market Today

The macroeconomic schedule features US data releases today that may drive dollar flows. US Factory Orders (MoM) arrive today at 15:00 UTC, with an estimate of 1.2 against a previous 0.1. At the same time today, US JOLTS Job Openings are due, estimated at 7.13 compared to the previous 7.079. In the newsflow, a dominant theme is the acceleration of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows pressuring the broader crypto market cap, as reported by Tokenpost and Invezz. Media mood underscores this tone, with the opportunity reading coming in bearish at -79 on a news volume that represents 132% of the 90-day average. In the futures market, as of the week to October 27, large speculators added to net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD), holding 2720 net contracts.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin maintains a downward trend structure across the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. Price is immediately testing the previous day low amid bearish media sentiment. The upcoming US JOLTS Job Openings data today at 15:00 UTC serves as the next scheduled catalyst on the economic calendar.