Forex Market Update: Dollar Mixed in New York Overlap

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 27, 2026, 12:52 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Into the London and New York overlap the dollar is mixed: firmer versus the euro and yen, softer versus the Australian dollar, with EUR/USD already under S1 at 1.1155.

Overlap snapshot

The London and New York overlap is in progress, with London's close still ahead at 16:00 UTC, and the dollar does not point one way across the majors. Bitcoin leads the percentage board, up 0.59% on the day, followed by the Nasdaq 100 up 0.48% and Ethereum up 0.45%. Among currencies, AUD/USD is up 0.23% and USD/JPY is up 0.21%, while USD/CAD is only up 0.08%.

The soft side of the board is the euro. EUR/USD is down 0.2%, GBP/USD is down 0.09%, WTI crude is down 0.04%, and gold is barely higher, up 0.07%. Daily and four-hour trends agree lower on EUR/USD, gold and Ethereum, and they agree higher only on WTI. GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and the Nasdaq 100 are mixed on both windows, and AUD/USD is mixed on the daily chart with a four-hour trend that is up. That disagreement sets the dollar bias for this overlap at neutral.

The five-day window tells the same split story in its own numbers. EUR/USD is down 0.53% and USD/JPY is down 0.41% over five days, while AUD/USD is up 0.76% and USD/CAD is down 0.62%. US Treasury yields from the October 26 close are context only: the three-month yield at 4.22%, the two-year at 4.68%, down 1 basis point versus October 23, and the ten-year at 5% with a 0 basis-point change versus that same date. The two-year versus ten-year spread stood at 32 basis points.

Prices and daily trends

Last prices, the day's percentage change and the daily trend for each instrument on the overlap board:

Bitcoin at 80201.08 is between the daily pivot at 79893.14 and R1 at 80545.1, with a mixed daily trend, a four-hour trend down, a daily RSI of 40.7 and a five-day change of down 5.19%. Ethereum at 2330.81 is between the pivot at 2316.91 and R1 at 2343.83, with both trends down, RSI at 33.6 and a five-day change of down 5.7%. The Nasdaq 100 at 29432 sits between the pivot at 29186.4 and R1 at 29512, daily RSI 41.9, five-day change down 0.39%.

Three levels that stand out

EUR/USD at 1.11509 is already below S1 at 1.1155, beyond the bottom of the pivot-point ladder. The daily pivot at 1.11904 and R1 at 1.12084 are both overhead, the day high is 1.11778 and the day low is 1.11347. Both the daily and four-hour trends are down, daily RSI is 34.8, and 14-day ATR is 60.1 pips. A recovery through S1 at 1.1155 would reopen a path toward the daily pivot at 1.11904. A move under the day low at 1.11347 would leave that recovery behind, with no further pivot support listed beneath S1.

USD/JPY at 157.811 is between the daily pivot at 157.243 and R1 at 157.855, with S1 down at 156.863. The day high is 157.861 and the day low is 157.378. Both trends are mixed, RSI is 48, the five-day change is down 0.41%, and ATR is 99.2 pips. Clearing R1 at 157.855 would leave the day high at 157.861 as the nearby print on this set. Falling back under the daily pivot at 157.243 would cancel that upside path and put S1 at 156.863 back in view.

Gold at 4020.17 is between the daily pivot at 4008.48 and R1 at 4038.78, with S1 at 3986.89. The day high is 4028.52 and the day low is 3989.16. Price is up 0.07% today, yet both the daily and four-hour trends are down, RSI is 35.8, the five-day change is down 2.91%, and ATR is 73.62 dollars. Staying above the pivot at 4008.48 keeps R1 at 4038.78 as the upside reference, with the day high at 4028.52 sitting between the last price and that R1. A slip back under the pivot at 4008.48 would undercut the day's small gain and bring the day low at 3989.16 and S1 at 3986.89 into play.

Two other pairs frame the same neutral dollar. AUD/USD at 0.70306 is between the pivot at 0.70214 and R1 at 0.70314, four-hour trend up against a mixed daily trend, RSI 50.6, five-day change up 0.76%. GBP/USD at 1.33288 is between S1 at 1.33161 and the pivot at 1.33514, with both trends mixed and RSI at 51.7. WTI is the trend outlier in the wider ForexR market analysis set: both daily and four-hour trends are up, last at 100.515 between S1 at 99.371 and the pivot at 100.867, RSI 63.2, five-day change up 2.46%, even though the day itself is down 0.04%.

Newsflow and what is scheduled

Coverage into this hour clusters on gold and the US dollar. FX Street, FXEmpire and Forexcom are all on bullion, and FX Street's file also reaches the euro, silver, the Swiss franc and the Brazilian real. Those notes describe what is being discussed; they do not establish why any of today's prices moved.

On today's economic calendar, still ahead in this overlap, the US Housing Price Index (MoM) is at 13:00 UTC, medium impact, previous 0.3 and estimate 0.1. At 14:00 UTC, New Home Sales Change (MoM), previous 6.4, and Consumer Confidence are both medium impact, and neither has an estimate listed. ECB President Lagarde's speech is today at 17:00 UTC, high impact, which is after London closes at 16:00 UTC. No estimate is attached to the speech.

Tomorrow, not today, Australia takes the calendar. RBA Governor Bullock speaks at 00:15 UTC, high impact. At 00:30 UTC, trimmed mean CPI (YoY) is high impact with a previous reading of 3.6 and no estimate; CPI (YoY) is high impact, previous 4 and estimate 4.2; CPI (MoM) is medium impact, previous 0.4 and estimate 0.7; and trimmed mean CPI (MoM) is medium impact, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3.

Bottom line

The overlap leaves the US dollar neutral. EUR/USD is the weak major, already under S1 at 1.1155, while USD/JPY is still under R1 at 157.855 and AUD/USD is firmer on the day with a four-hour trend up. Gold holds between the pivot at 4008.48 and R1 at 4038.78 despite downtrends on both timeframes. Between now and the London close at 16:00 UTC, the scheduled US items are the housing index at 13:00 UTC and the two 14:00 UTC releases, with Lagarde's high-impact speech today at 17:00 UTC. None of those levels or listings fixes the next print.