New York Session Forex Update: Dollar Firms as Oil Jumps, Gold Slips

Session brief Bullish bias Oct 12, 2026, 12:49 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

The dollar is modestly firmer across most majors into the New York session, while WTI crude has broken above its daily R1 and gold has slipped back toward S1 at 4147.71.

New York Session Overview

Into the London and New York overlap, the standout mover is WTI crude oil, up 2.27% on the day and the clear leader across the board. USD/JPY follows at the top of the leaderboard, up 0.20%, with USD/CAD up 0.05% and GBP/USD essentially flat at up 0.01%.

At the other end, Bitcoin is the session's laggard at down 0.87%, with gold close behind at down 0.69%. The Nasdaq 100 is down 0.22%, AUD/USD down 0.21%, and EUR/USD down 0.18%, while Ethereum is little changed at down 0.03%.

Instrument Snapshot

Key Setups to Watch

WTI crude is trading above R1 at 91.733, beyond the top of its pivot ladder, with the day's range spanning 88.974 to 93.062. With the daily and four-hour trend both up, a hold above R1 at 91.733 keeps the path open toward the day high at 93.062; a slip back below that level would pull focus back to the pivot at 90.59.

Gold sits between S1 at 4147.71 and the daily pivot at 4177.58, with both the daily and four-hour trend pointing down. A recovery back through the pivot at 4177.58 would open the way toward R1 at 4224.27, while a break below S1 at 4147.71 would extend the slide already in place.

USD/JPY also trades above R1 at 158.567, beyond its pivot ladder, with the four-hour trend up even as the daily trend reads mixed. Continued strength keeps the day high at 158.627 in view; a retreat back under R1 at 158.567 and toward the pivot at 158.138 would soften that picture. For readers mapping these levels themselves, the pivot point calculator and the pivot points guide break down how each level is derived.

Dollar and Fed Backdrop

The dollar is modestly firmer against most peers this session: EUR/USD is down 0.18% with a five-day change of -0.63% and a daily RSI of 25.1, AUD/USD is down 0.21%, and USD/CAD is up 0.05%. USD/JPY adds to that tone at up 0.20%, while GBP/USD is the exception, essentially unchanged at up 0.01%. The currency strength meter offers a live cross-pair view of how that split is playing out.

US Treasury yields at the October 9, 2026 close showed the 2-year at 4.80%, up 5 basis points versus October 8, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points, putting the 2s10s curve at 44 basis points. Fed's Hammack is scheduled to speak today at 16:50 UTC, shortly after the New York-London overlap gives way to New York alone.

Newsflow Themes

Coverage from Orbex runs through its regular daily notes on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and gold. FX Street's reporting centers on gold struggling to hold its recent push higher and sterling giving back earlier gains against the dollar, with both pieces pointing to upcoming US inflation data as a focus for markets. ExchangeRates, separately, is looking at the pound's cross-rate outlook against the New Zealand dollar.

Calendar Ahead

BoE's Mann is due to speak today at 12:50 UTC, right in the current session window, a medium-impact event. Fed's Hammack follows today at 16:50 UTC, also medium impact, and the UK's BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales year-on-year print lands today at 23:01 UTC, with the estimate at 0.7% against a previous reading of 0.5%.

Looking to tomorrow, an IMF Meeting is set for 00:00 UTC and the RBA Meeting Minutes follow at 00:30 UTC, the latter a high-impact release for AUD pairs. The economic calendar guide covers how to track impact ratings like these through the week.

Bottom Line

The dollar carries a modest edge into the New York session, firmer against the euro, Aussie and yen while roughly flat against sterling. WTI crude's break above R1 at 91.733 and gold's slide toward S1 at 4147.71 are the two sharpest moves on the board, with Fed's Hammack and the BRC retail sales data still ahead today, and the RBA minutes due early tomorrow.