Forex Market Update New York Session: USD Gains Ahead of ISM PMI

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 5, 2026, 12:50 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

The US Dollar displays intraday strength during the London-New York overlap, with traders focusing on key pivots ahead of today's high-impact ISM Services PMI.

Greenback Gaining as New York Session Opens

We are currently in the London and New York overlap at 12:45 UTC, ahead of the London close at 16:00 UTC. During this session, the US Dollar is showing strength against European currencies, while WTI Crude Oil and Ethereum lag behind. WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) is the biggest decliner, dropping by -1.12% to trade at 89.322, followed by Ethereum (ETH/USD) which has fallen -0.61% to 2710.2. In contrast, Gold (XAU/USD) leads the advancing instruments, climbing 0.52% to trade at 4160.67, while USD/JPY has moved up by 0.24% to 158.217.

Themes in Today's Newsflow

The broader market sentiment exhibits a mix of safe-haven interest and caution ahead of key economic data. According to reports from FXEmpire and Forexcom, market participants are observing a simultaneous rise in both Gold and the US Dollar, even as commodities face pressures from yields and energy prices. Meanwhile, technical observers at Action Forex and Orbex note that the Euro is facing sustained pressure due to divergent economic paths, with discussions centering on potential longer-term psychological support levels for EUR/USD. Additionally, as reported by FX Street, the British Pound has clawed back some early intraday losses as attention shifts toward upcoming US services sector data.

To provide broader context to these asset movements, we can examine US Treasury yields at the close of the trading day on October 2, 2026. The US 2-year Treasury yield finished at 4.83%, which is an increase of 5 basis points from the previous session. Concurrently, the 10-year yield ended at 5.28%, gaining 4 basis points on the day. This resulted in a yield curve spread between the 2-year and 10-year notes of 45 basis points. While treasury yields can reflect shifting expectations for US monetary policy and interest rates, they act as an underlying macro backdrop rather than a direct driver for today's hourly fluctuations.

Technical Setups in Key Instruments

Let's examine some of the most notable technical setups across major pairs and commodities during this session.

For EUR/USD, the daily and H4 trends are aligned downward. The pair is currently trading at 1.12053, which is below the daily pivot of 1.12525 and also below the daily S1 at 1.12203. Because the current price is below S1, this level of 1.12203 now serves as immediate overhead resistance. A sustained move below today's low of 1.11603 would open the path toward further downside targets. Conversely, a clear break back above S1 at 1.12203 could shift the intraday bias and allow for a recovery toward the daily pivot at 1.12525, which would invalidate the immediate bearish scenario. Traders seeking a real-time perspective on relative performance across major currencies can consult our live currency strength meter.

For Gold (XAU/USD), the daily and H4 trends are both pointing down, despite the intraday gain. The metal is trading at 4160.67, which sits between the first daily support S1 at 4100.74 and the daily pivot at 4163.62. If buyers can push the price above the daily pivot at 4163.62, it would open the way to test the first resistance level R1 at 4202.17. On the downside, a move back below the day low at 4124.57 would invalidate this intraday bounce and direct focus back toward the daily support S1 at 4100.74. For help calculating custom levels across different timeframes, refer to our pivot point calculator.

For GBP/USD, both the daily and H4 trends are currently down. The exchange rate is trading at 1.3216, positioned between the daily support S1 at 1.31955 and the daily pivot at 1.32254. A break below the daily support S1 at 1.31955 would open the way to test the session low at 1.31891. Alternatively, a move above the daily pivot at 1.32254 would invalidate the bearish view and signal a potential advance toward the daily resistance R1 at 1.327. You can stay updated on these levels by visiting our comprehensive forex market analysis hub.

US Services Data and Calendar Ahead

Today's economic calendar features several US services sector releases that could provide fresh data for the market. The high-impact ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release today at 14:00 UTC, with a market estimate of 55, compared to the previous reading of 55.4. Alongside this main index, three key sub-indices will be released at the same time today: the ISM Services Prices Paid (previous 72.6), the ISM Services New Orders Index (previous 60.9), and the ISM Services Employment Index (previous 47.8). Additionally, the S&P Global Composite PMI is scheduled for release today at 13:45 UTC, with an estimate of 58.4, which matches the previous print of 58.4. These scheduled events represent important indicators of economic activity, and actual figures diverging from estimates could trigger intraday volatility.

Bottom Line

As the overlap of London and New York sessions unfolds, the US Dollar is showing a resilient performance across key pairs. Technical structures point toward sustained downward daily trends for many major pairs, although Gold and the Greenback have found concurrent buyers. The upcoming high-impact services index release today will remain a pivotal focus for market direction as the session progresses.