Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast Today: Modest Gains in London

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 26, 2026, 08:15 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold trades at 4007.46, modestly higher than the previous close, inside a compressed London range as traders mark time ahead of the Fed. All timeframes show down trends with price between the daily pivot at 4002.46 and R1 at 4029.31; tomorrow US data is the nearer catalyst.

London session snapshot

Gold last at 4007.46, up 9.67 dollars or 0.24 percent from the previous close at 3997.79. The day open was 4010.41, the day high 4019.29 and the day low 3978.09. The day range of 41.2 dollars equals 55 percent of the 14-day ATR at 75.41. New York joins the session at 12:00 UTC. The last price sits between the daily pivot at 4002.46 and R1 at 4029.31, 5 dollars above the pivot and 21.85 dollars under R1.

Federal Reserve policy week in coverage

Reporting from FX Street and FXEmpire is grouped around the Federal Reserve policy week, with coverage noting gold steadying into the week or rebounding from recent lows. No Federal Reserve decision is on today's calendar. Headlines explain the theme of traders marking time ahead of the Fed without establishing a cause for the current range.

Tomorrow US releases

Tomorrow US releases are all medium impact. At 12:15 UTC the ADP Employment Change four-week average is due with previous 18.5 and no estimate shown. At 12:30 UTC Durable Goods Orders is due with previous 0 and estimate 0.6, alongside Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft with previous 1.6, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense with previous 0.1, and Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation with previous 0.3 and estimate 0.6. The Housing Price Index month-on-month reading is at 13:00 UTC with previous 0.3 and estimate 0.1. These releases can move the dollar and gold.

Technical read: price in the range and levels that end the stall

Price sits between the daily pivot at 4002.46 and R1 at 4029.31. Nearest resistance is R1 at 4029.31 and nearest support is the daily pivot at 4002.46. The daily pivot set is R1 at 4029.31, R2 at 4060.84 and R3 at 4087.69 above price, with S1 at 3970.93, S2 at 3944.08 and S3 at 3912.55 below it. Yesterday high was 4033.98 and yesterday low 3975.6. The five-day range high is 4190.27 and low 3975.6. The twenty-day range high is 4280.13 and low 3975.6. Round levels below price are 4000 and above price 4050.

Bullish scenario

A break above R1 at 4029.31 would open the way to R2 at 4060.84; a move back below the daily pivot at 4002.46 would invalidate that view. The 4050 round number sits between those two resistance levels.

Bearish scenario

A break below S1 at 3970.93 would open the way to S2 at 3944.08; a move back above the daily pivot at 4002.46 would invalidate that view.

What to watch into the next session

As of the week to October 20 large speculators were net long Gold XAUUSD with 86.4 percent long and 13.6 percent short, reducing their net long from the prior week's 207879 contracts. US Treasury yields at the October 23 close had the two-year at 4.69 percent up 4 basis points, the ten-year at 5 percent up 4 basis points and the three-month at 4.22 percent. News volume is at 31 percent of its 90-day average with the opportunity read bearish at -39. Daily price is below the 20-day EMA at 4149.29, the 50-day EMA at 4222.87 and the 200-day EMA at 4412.32 with daily RSI at 33.4. The four-hour trend is down with price under the 20-period EMA at 4043.84 and the 50-period EMA at 4091.61. The one-hour trend is down with price under the 20-period EMA at 4007.77 and the 50-period EMA at 4030.74. Five-day performance is down 3.76 percent and twenty-day performance is down 6.48 percent. Through the rest of London and into New York Gold is up on the day but all trends point lower. The next scheduled releases arrive tomorrow beginning at 12:15 UTC without front-running the Fed.