What is the Gold (XAU/USD) forecast today?

Gold trades at 4189.91 in the Asia session, up 0.44% from the previous close, sitting between the daily pivot at 4181.07 and resistance at R1 at 4207.55. Daily trend points down while the four-hour and one-hour trends point up, which keeps today's outlook neutral rather than directional.

How will Fed's Waller speech affect gold prices?

Fed's Waller is scheduled to speak at 07:45 UTC today, a medium-impact event with no prior reading listed for comparison. Today's range of 49.71 dollars has already used 59% of the 83.97 average true range, leaving room for the market to move further once the speech is out.

What role does geopolitics play in gold prices?

FX Street coverage today ties gold's two-week range to shifting geopolitical currents alongside a wavering US dollar, without pinning the move to a single driver. CFTC data for the week to October 6 showed speculators still heavily net long Gold (XAU/USD), at 87.5% long versus 12.5% short, even after trimming that net long position from the prior week.

Is gold expected to break out of its current range?

Price remains inside the 5-day range of 4217.05 to 4066.34 and well within the wider 20-day range of 4399.52 to 4066.34, with today's move contained between the daily pivot and R1. A close beyond R1 at 4207.55 or below S1 at 4145.10 would be an early sign of a shift beyond that recent range, though today's calendar carries no event that would confirm such a move in advance.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast Today: Steady Near Range Highs

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 13, 2026, 06:18 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold holds between the daily pivot at 4181.07 and R1 at 4207.55 in the Asia session; daily trend is down but H4 and H1 point up, keeping bias neutral ahead of Fed's Waller speech and today's US data.

Asian man standing in front of tall window with mug and looking out

Price4,189.91

Day change+0.44%

Day range4,150.69 - 4,200.40

ATR (14)83.97

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	4,270.00	S1	4,145.10
R2	4,243.52	S2	4,118.62
R1	4,207.55	S3	4,082.65
Previous day high	4,217.05	Previous day low	4,154.60
20-day high	4,399.52	20-day low	4,066.34
Daily pivot 4,181.07. Data as of 2026-10-13 06:15 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 4,181.07, R1 4,207.55, R2 4,243.52, S1 4,145.10, S2 4,118.62 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — Gold (XAU/USD), 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-13 06:15 UTC.

Gold's Position in the Asia Session

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at 4189.91, up 18.34 dollars, or 0.44%, from the previous close of 4171.57, as the market moves through the Asia session ahead of the London open at 07:00 UTC. The day's range has run from a low of 4150.69 to a high of 4200.40, a spread of 49.71 dollars that covers 59% of the 14-day average true range of 83.97, leaving scope for the range to widen once London and New York desks are active.

Price currently sits between the daily pivot at 4181.07 and resistance at R1 at 4207.55, 8.84 dollars above the pivot and 17.64 dollars below R1, broadly in the middle of today's traded range.

Trend and Momentum Disagree Across Timeframes

The daily trend reads down, with price sitting below the 200-day EMA at 4420.39 and below the 50-day EMA at 4271.86 and 20-day EMA at 4217.57. Daily RSI at 43.9 sits under the midline, in line with that softer daily tone, while the 5-day change of 1.2% contrasts with a 20-day change of -2.53%.

The four-hour trend has turned up, with the 20-period EMA at 4171.75 above the 50-period EMA at 4171.59, and the one-hour trend agrees, with the 20-period EMA at 4178.69 above the 50-period EMA at 4173.94. With the daily reading down and the shorter H4 and H1 readings up, the picture is mixed rather than aligned, which is why today's bias reads neutral.

Key Levels on the Board

Nearest resistance sits at R1, 4207.55, just 17.64 dollars above the last price, while nearest support is the daily pivot at 4181.07, 8.84 dollars below. Beyond those, the pivot point calculator shows R2 at 4243.52 and R3 at 4270.00 on the upside, with S1 at 4145.10, S2 at 4118.62 and S3 at 4082.65 below.

Yesterday's session (October 12) ran between a high of 4217.05 and a low of 4154.60 before settling at yesterday's close of 4171.57. The 5-day range has stretched between a high of 4217.05 and a low of 4066.34, while the wider 20-day range spans a high of 4399.52 down to the same low of 4066.34. Among round numbers, the 4200 level sits just under today's high of 4200.40, and the 4150 level sits just under today's low of 4150.69, putting both inside the day's traded band.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing resistance at R1 at 4207.55 would open the way toward R2 at 4243.52; that reading would fail on a slide back below the daily pivot at 4181.07. On the downside, a break of support at S1 at 4145.10 would open the way toward S2 at 4118.62, with that case undone by a recovery back above the daily pivot at 4181.07. Either path can be sized against account risk using the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move Gold Today

Fed's Waller is due to speak at 07:45 UTC today, a medium-impact event with no prior reading listed for comparison. The ADP Employment Change four-week average follows at 12:15 UTC, with the previous reading at 23.75, and Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) is due at 14:00 UTC, previous reading -2%. Later, the Monthly Budget Statement lands at 18:00 UTC, with a previous figure of -166.8 against an estimate of -28. Looking further out via the economic calendar guide, tomorrow brings an IMF meeting at 00:00 UTC and a Fed's Bowman speech at 09:40 UTC.

Coverage from FX Street today frames gold's move as continued range play tied to shifting geopolitical currents and a wavering US dollar, with some commentary pointing to ongoing long-term buying interest in the metal.

CFTC data for the week to October 6 showed large speculators net long Gold (XAU/USD), with 87.5% of positions held long against 12.5% short for a net position of 210,335 contracts, down from 218,632 the week before as some net long exposure was trimmed.

US Treasury yields at the October 9 close stood at 4.80% on the 2-year, up 5 basis points, and 5.24% on the 10-year, up 2 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 44 basis points; these are context, not a signal for gold's next move.

Separately, news-sentiment tracking shows a bullish opportunity reading of 75 on gold, with coverage volume running at 114% of its 90-day average, a measure of media tone rather than a trading call.

Bottom Line

Gold sits between the daily pivot at 4181.07 and resistance at R1 at 4207.55 heading into London, with the daily trend down but the four-hour and one-hour trends up, leaving the near-term picture neutral. A push through R1 at 4207.55 opens the door to R2 at 4243.52, while a break of S1 at 4145.10 opens the door to S2 at 4118.62, and the daily pivot at 4181.07 remains the line that would undo either case. Fed's Waller speech at 07:45 UTC and the afternoon's US data round out a session where today's range has already used more than half of its average true range.