How will the US Nonfarm Payrolls report impact GBP/USD today?

Nonfarm Payrolls print today at 12:30 UTC, with a previous reading of 162 and an estimate of 90, alongside Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. A break above R1 at 1.32496 would open the way to R2 at 1.33067, while a break of S1 at 1.31577 would open S2 at 1.31229.

What are the main support and resistance levels for GBP/USD ahead of the US data?

Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.32148, 1.3 pips above 1.32135. Nearest support is the previous day low at 1.318, 33.5 pips below. R1 at 1.32496 and the round number at 1.325 sit above; S1 at 1.31577 sits below.

Do the daily, four-hour and hourly GBP/USD trends agree today?

No. The daily trend is down and the four-hour trend is down, while the hourly trend is mixed. Daily RSI is at 29.2 and price is below the 200-day EMA at 1.34153.

GBP/USD Forecast Today: Daily Pivot in Focus Into Payrolls

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 2, 2026, 07:21 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

GBP/USD is at 1.32135, up 0.16% in London, just under the daily pivot at 1.32148. Daily and four-hour trends are down, the hourly is mixed, and US payrolls print at 12:30 UTC.

Forex trader analyzing market charts to plan commodities exchange on multi monitor workstation. Financial inve

Price1.32135

Day change+0.16%

Day range1.31807 - 1.32182

ATR (14)0.00660

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.33415	S1	1.31577
R2	1.33067	S2	1.31229
R1	1.32496	S3	1.30658
Previous day high	1.32719	Previous day low	1.31800
20-day high	1.35672	20-day low	1.31800
Daily pivot 1.32148. Data as of 2026-10-02 07:15 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

GBP/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.32148, R1 1.32496, R2 1.33067, S1 1.31577, S2 1.31229 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — GBP/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-02 07:15 UTC.

Where GBP/USD stands in the London session

GBP/USD is at 1.32135 in the London session, up 0.16% from the previous close at 1.31925, with the daily and four-hour trends still down. The daily pivot at 1.32148 is the level that matters most, 1.3 pips above the last price. The day high is 1.32182 and the day low is 1.31807 on the live GBP/USD rate, chart and pivots.

The 37.5-pip day range is 57% of the 14-day ATR of 66 pips. The day open is 1.31924. Yesterday's high was 1.32719, yesterday's low was 1.318 and yesterday's close was 1.31925, a 91.9-pip range.

Trend and momentum

The daily trend is down. Price is below the 20-day EMA at 1.33458, the 50-day EMA at 1.341 and the 200-day EMA at 1.34153. The four-hour trend is down, with the 20-period EMA at 1.32308 and the 50-period EMA at 1.32655. Daily RSI is at 29.2.

The hourly trend is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 1.32074 and the 50-period EMA at 1.32219. Daily and four-hour charts agree on a downtrend; the hourly chart does not. GBP/USD is down 0.03% over five days and down 2.29% over twenty days.

Levels that matter

Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.32148, 1.3 pips away. Nearest support is the previous day low at 1.318, 33.5 pips away. R1 is at 1.32496, R2 at 1.33067 and R3 at 1.33415, with S1 at 1.31577, S2 at 1.31229 and S3 at 1.30658; the pivot point calculator maps that grid.

Yesterday's high stands at 1.32719 and yesterday's low at 1.318. The five-day range has a high at 1.33102 and a low at 1.318. The twenty-day range has a high at 1.35672 and a low at 1.318. The round number below is 1.32 and the round number above is 1.325.

Bullish and bearish scenarios

A break above R1 at 1.32496 would open the way to R2 at 1.33067. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.32148 would invalidate that view.

Should price break S1 at 1.31577, S2 at 1.31229 would become the next objective. That downside case would fall away if GBP/USD recaptures the daily pivot at 1.32148.

What could move GBP/USD today

US labor figures print today at 12:30 UTC. Nonfarm Payrolls (high impact) have a previous reading of 162 and an estimate of 90. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY), high impact, have a previous 3.1 and an estimate of 3.2. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), high impact, have a previous 0.3 and an estimate of 0.3. The Unemployment Rate has a previous 4.1 and an estimate of 4.1. The U6 Underemployment Rate has a previous 7.7, and the Labor Force Participation Rate has a previous 61.6. Factory Orders (MoM) follow today at 14:00 UTC, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.1. Those UTC stamps are laid out in the guide to using an economic calendar.

This morning's coverage from ExchangeRates, FX Street, FXEmpire and Forexcom has clustered around US jobs figures, a firmer dollar and the chance of further sterling pressure, with a separate thread on stretched momentum.

As of the week to September 22, large speculators were net short GBP/USD. Speculators added to net short GBP/USD, at 28.4% long and 71.6% short.

US Treasury yields at the October 1 close showed the 2-year yield at 4.78%, down 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.24%, down 5 basis points. The 3-month yield was 4.17% and the 2s10s curve stood at 46 basis points.

News sentiment is 68% bullish and 32% bearish, with media mood at 100. The opportunity read is neutral at a score of -3, and news volume is at 79% of its 90-day average.

Bottom line

GBP/USD is at 1.32135 in London, up 0.16%, with daily and four-hour trends down and the hourly mixed. The daily pivot at 1.32148 is the level that matters most into US payrolls at 12:30 UTC. A break above R1 at 1.32496 would open the way to R2 at 1.33067; a break of S1 at 1.31577 would bring S2 at 1.31229 into view.